Saturday, November 3, 2007

Western Conference Breakdown: Where the Sonics Stand

The Western Conference has dominated the NBA landscape since Jordan retired, winning 7 of the 9 NBA championships. There have simply been more quality teams in the West over that period, with the common refrain being that the top 5-6 teams in the West would win the championship. This proved to be especially true last year, when an extremely flawed Cleveland team managed to reach the finals only to be completely outclassed by the Spurs.

This unlikely to change, despite the large number of quality defections to the East over the past year including Kevin Garnett, Zach Randolph, Jason Richardson, and two of the Sonics very own in Ray Allen and the ridiculously over paid Rashard Lewis. These are all good players. However none of these players were teams in the upper half of the Western Conference, and only Richardson played in the playoffs last year. As such, the elite teams in the West remain, well, Elite. By my count there are 5 teams.

THE ELITE

1. San Antonio Spurs - After winning their 4th title in the post-Jordan (Wizards years not included) era, they are the premier frachchise of the decade. They are more motivated than ever to win their first repeat championship. While the team is aging, they will be in serious title contention for at least the next three years.

Foundation of their team: The draft. Landing Duncan 1st overall was a serious coup (hmm...what other team just got lucky and landed a franchise player in the draft?), but they outsmarted the rest of the league by grabbing Tony Parker at 21 overall, and landing Manu Ginobili in the second round years before anyone was taking international players seriously. As an elite team they can now grab veteran talent cheaply for the chance to play for a ring.

Impact on the Sonics: While the Sonics new ownership hasn't made many friends in the Seattle area, it's hard to not be impressed with the front office moves Clay Bennet and co. have made tabbing Spurs front-office up and comer Sam Presti for the GM job, and an experienced coach in P.J. Carlesimo. The Spurs are the model franchise in the NBA, how better to be like the Spurs than to grab their best people?

2. Dallas Mavericks - If I told you that the Maverick's were up 2-0 in the 2006 NBA Finals and held a big 4th quarter lead in Game 3 against the Heat, then followed it up by winning 67 games last year, you might assume they were back-to-back NBA champions. You'd be wrong, as this team has CHOKED two years straight in the playoffs. While they obviously have one of the most complete teams in the NBA, and are going to win big again this season, they will have alot to prove come playoff time. If they remove the mental blocks, watch out.

Foundation of their team: Draft/Trades. Remarkably, considering Cuban's willingness to spend, the Mavericks have been built largely through the draft. Nowitzki was a steal at #9, and Josh Howard was even better as the 29th player taken in the 2003 draft. That accounts for their two best players. The remainder of the frachise has been built through a large number of trades, and no one deals like the Mavs (well, maybe the Knicks, but I'm not so sure they won't be playing in the Big East in a few years). Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, and Jason Terry, all came through trades.

Impact on the Sonics: Really not too much. I like Cuban's willingness to shake things up, and the impact of a Defense-first coach in Avery Johnson on a previously weak defensive team should be noted. They aren't a divisional rival, so aside from the 4 games a year, there isn't a lot of overlap.

3. Phoenix Suns: The most entertaining team in the league, the Suns are also one of the toughest lead by two time MVP Steve Nash. They score points, they defend well (though it isn't always seen due to the breakneck pace at which they play), and they win. They are however unable/unwilling to pay the luxury tax, which has lead a bizarre, annual auctioning off of draft picks each year to the highest bidder (i.e. the Portland Trail Blazers). Their window for a championship depends on how long Nash can play at his current level.

Foundation of the Team: Free Agency. While the frame was built through the draft, namely landing Marion and Stoudemire with top 10 picks, the signing of Steve Nash from the Mavericks was the most important free agent signing of the past few years. Nash, along with like-minded Coach Mike D'Antoni energized the franchise, and revived a fast-break style of play dead in the NBA for over 15 years.

Impact on the Sonics: Aside from making a fast style of play an acceptable franchise philosophy, the Suns penny-pinching ways have already paid off for the Sonics. Unwilling to pay the luxury tax for Kurt Thomas's $8 million salary, the Suns traded him to the Sonics for a trade exemption the Sonics picked up in the Rashard Lewis sign and trade. For their trouble (i.e. taking Kurt Thomas, who's not a bad player with only 1 year left on his contract), the Sonics got TWO future first round picks in 2008 and 2010. This is the kind of trade that is so one-sided it makes the rest of the NBA angry. The Sonics should look to take advantage of the Suns cap situation as often as possible over the next few years.

4. Houston Rockets - Despite not advancing out of the first round, this team is loaded enough to deserve inclusion in the elite. Just look at the roster. The best center in the NBA: Yao Ming. The best wing player in the NBA: Tracy McGrady. A tremendous supporting cast including Steve Francis, Shane Battier, Mike James, and Bonzi Wells. That's not even including import Luis Scola, one of the leaders of the Argentina national team that whips Team USA every year. If they can survive their division (with the Spurs and the Mavs), they will advance in the playoffs this year. Possibly to the Finals.

Foundation of the team: Trades. Yao Ming came in through the draft, but this was a team built through taking advantage of other franchises. T-Mac came from Orlando (should I mention that the primary piece of the trade for T-Mac is already back on the team?), Battier from the Grizzlies, James from the Timberwolves, heck even Scola came from the Spurs (though he had never played an NBA game before this season).

Impact on the Sonics: Very little at this point, but the Rockets made a hopefully influential hire in GM Daryl Morey. Morey, is a 'stat guy', a growing group of basketball people who have been influenced by the impact statistical analysis has had on baseball. This will likely become a more common trend in the coming years, and more teams look for the edge advanced statistical analysis may provide.

5. Utah Jazz: After a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals, the Jazz must be considered one of the best teams in the NBA. They have a complete roster, 1-5, and an excellent coach in Jerry Sloan. Deron Williams is one of the best young point guards in the game and Carlos Boozer is an unbelievable low-post presence. I don't know how the Jazz landed Karl Malone reincarnated (well, actually I do, Boozer reneged on a handshake deal with Cleveland), but Boozer is unstoppable on the low block.

Foundation of the team: Free Agency? Really? Salt Lake City, so frequently cited as the least desirable NBA location (you just wait for the Sonics to move to OKC!), has managed to draw in the top talent required to make the Jazz elite? Well...sure. Boozer came in the aformentioned pilfering from Cleveland, and Mehmet Okur came from the Pistons. Without these two high level front court players, the Jazz are sniffing the playoffs in the West. AK-47 or no.

Impact on the Sonics: As a divisional rival, the Sonics don't deal much with the Jazz. However, the additon of an elite team in the Northwest division isn't going to make things any easier for the Sonics over the next few years.

To follow: The Rest of the West.

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