I thought I would throw in a few thoughts and picks for tonight.
Bill Simmons, ESPN's lead dog and one of the best NBA writers in the business (note: I didn't always have to qualify the previous statement by adding 'NBA', but add me to the list of people who are more than a little tired of the Patriots crap), broke down the Western Conference. Here's what he had to say about the Sonics:
14. SEATTLE SUPERSONICSPreseason prediction: 25 wins (14th)Revised prediction: 18 wins
Speaking of depressed fans, here are the Sonics! They could be watching Kevin Durant learn the ropes from Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis right now -- instead, he's the overmatched crunch-time scorer for a rebuilding young team that's bolting within the next three years. You have to feel for Seattle fans, who want nothing more than to drink a celebratory triple, nonfat, soy latte while wearing their new $100 Durant jersey that they're terrified to buy until somebody announces the team is staying. On a personal note, I don't believe any former NBA champion should ever be allowed to move. This should be in the NBA bylaws and everything. You win a title, you stay in that city forever. Done and done.
Anyway, here's what I don't get: The best five Sonics are Durant, Chris Wilcox, Jeff Green, Damien Wilkins and Delonte West, an athletic unit that would work for SmallBall because Wilkins, Green and West rebound better than their sizes. According to 82games.com, they've played only nine minutes together this season. Whaaaaaaaat??? This team is crying out for SmallBall! Why play Durant at 2-guard when you could force mismatches by playing him at the 4 against everyone but the Knicks? It's not like the other guys give them a better chance to rebound and defend. For instance, they played a conventional lineup in Charlotte last weekend, lost by 16 points and got outrebounded 60-38. What do they have to lose? I wish Don Nelson could take this team over for two weeks.
Reason No. 12,806 why I love the NBA: Watching Durant drain a buzzer-beating, off-balance 3 in double-OT to beat Atlanta on Friday. It wasn't just that Durant came through in his ninth NBA game, it was how easy he made it look -- in end-of-the-game situations, he'll always be able to shoot over his defender because of his ... (hold on, give me a chance to sedate Jay Bilas) ... (wait, just another second) ... (OK, we're good, he's down) ... incomparable length. We haven't seen the last of the Durant buzzer-beaters this season. I'm predicting a 30-footer with a hand in his face by March 15.
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Simmons is generally dead on, though suggesting the Sonics should have kept Rashard Lewis when Orlando was willing to pay $100+ million for a guy who doesn't consider defense to be worth his time is laughable. He can make an argument about Ray Allen, though its too early to call that trade either way. Jeff Green is looking pretty good to me.
Durant absolutely needs a chance to play some time at either of the forward spots. How many power forwards can keep up with him? At least let him try vs. some teams. I talked about how the Sonics need to start getting Durant some easy shots yesterday, and what better way than to match up with with some burly power forward and let Durant take him off the dribble? Plus it would take away one more player from protecting the rim. The reason why this hasn't happened is that Coach Carlesimo is committed to defense (as evidenced by Earl Watson's minutes the first few games of the season), and Durant would get abused from time to time. But obviously the KD-Shooting Guard experiment isn't working. Let's try something new.
I should also note that Simmon's best 5 players and my best 5 players from a few days ago differs only by having Green in for Collison. It's obvious who the best five are to anyone but Coach Carlesimo. When you are 2-10, you can experiment a little.
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A number of websites are posting their Rookie Watch, a list of the top 10 rookies so far this year. As one can imagine, these lists vary wildly depending on what hallucinogens the maker of the list is on. I don't want to spend too much time on this, but I was mildly outraged that David Thorpe placed Jamarrio Moon above Jeff Green on this week's list. Moon has worse stats than Green despite playing more minutes and being six (6!) years older. I won't slam Thorpe too bad though, as he did say nice things about Green:
"Jeff Green is considered a face-up 4/3, but he is dangerous as a low-post threat. He patiently works to get his hook shot off, and he has great hands. Better yet, he has a nose for the ball and is very comfortable making plays in traffic. This kid is worthy of his top-five selection."
I wholeheartedly agree David. Just bump him up above Moon, Juan Carlos Navarro, and Luis Scola next time. You can make an argument that Green has been better than Al Horford and KD too, but both of those players have had a lot more responsibility pushed on them. And if we go just by PER, Sean Williams of the Nets is blowing everybody out of the water.
His notes on Durant aren't nearly as promising though:
"Seattle's Kevin Durant has the look of a guy focused on style over substance. Works for marketing, but not in the win column."
and
"2. Kevin Durant, SonicsIn Seattle's past five games, KD has attempted 16 3-pointers and grabbed just 12 rebounds in almost 33 minutes per game. That is an inexcusable stat for an athletic and tall guard who played so hard in college."
I agree. It's time for both KD and the Sonics coaching staff to step it up.
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NBA Picks:
Dallas (+2) over Houston
Atlanta (+8) over Miami
Cleveland(-5) over Minnesota
Orlando(+5.5) over San Antonio
(2-1 for last picks (11/14), 7-9 overall)
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