Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Picking yourself up off the mat/Game 5 Preview: Memphis Grizzlies


Ugh. I still can't believe the Sonics crapped away last nights game against the Kings, but here we are sitting at 0-4 a week into the season. But this is going to be a long season, and there's no room for pity when you have to get up for another game tonight. So instead of focusing on the oh-so painful last two minutes, let's look at what went right for the Sonics last night.

Wally's World: Wally Szczerbiak showed that he's still got a lot of tread left on the tires with a scintillating 32 point performance on 12-16 shooting. Now Wally isn't going to pour in 30 (or even 20) every night, but even if he went 7-16 last night, he still would have scored around 20, with a decent shooting percentage. While Wally's never been known for defense (he'll fit right in!), he's one of the few veterans on the team (please get healthy Kurt Thomas), and he showed his shooting touch hasn't gone anywhere. He should be in the starting lineup very soon, as Coach Carlesimo played his two best scorers together for long stretches in the 2nd half. He should be able to average 18 ppg if he stays healthy, and though he won't fill up a box score like Ray Allen, he should be able to chip in 80% of his scoring on most nights. He's looked less like a throw-in to match up salaries and more like a player the last two games. Keep it up Wally.

Mr. Durant: We need a great nickname for Durant. I don't want him to be stuck with some idiotic like K-Smooth or something. It's too bad "Ice Man" is taken. "Goose" maybe? Goose Durant. It took Durant all of 4 games to establish himself as a 25 ppg scorer in this league. 4 games. He's 19, and has the legs of a 13 year old. What a player. He came up big at times last night, including a short portion where he decided to take over the game scoring 6 unanswered points and making plays on defense. The best part is, there hasn't been a point this season where you've thought, "man, Durant just has it going on tonight". He's just been consistent. He's still forcing a couple of shots (I could do with 2 less 3's per game and a couple more drives to the paint), and let's not get started on turnovers (yet), but only injuries are going to stop him from becoming one of the top 5 players in the league. I hope he doesn't let the losing get to him.

Second Quarter Sonics: After a fairly pedestrian 1st quarter, Coach Carlesimo left the entire second unit in to start the 2nd quarter...which turned out okay. Wally got fire, and the Sonics were running the Kings out of the gym at one point on a 27-6 run. The Kings clawed back in at the end when the starters came back out, but the Sonics still outscored the Kings 36-22 for the quarter, the first time they've decisively won a quarter this season.

Fourth Quarter Kings: Even though the Kings won this quarter 32-20 (including a 7-0 run to close the game), this was vastly different from the first 3 games, as the Sonics were ahead for almost the entire quarter, and were just 2 minutes from pulling it out They are an extremely young team (3rd youngest in the league) playing against a team that just knew how to win a little bit more. When you're 0-4, you have to look for the little victories. Despite the bitter way the game ended, this is one.

Now on the otherside, Turnovers remained an enormous problem for the Sonics (25 on the night), with Durant leading the way with 6, Swift with 4, and the rest of the team with 3 apiece. The Sonics shot the ball better, rebounded the ball better, and made more assists, but it doesn't matter when you are throwing away 25 possessions a game. This has to be the number 1 priority for Coach Carlesimo going forward (aside from defense). The points are going to come, they just have to be smarter with the ball.

If Coach Carlesimo wants to start the best five players, Watson, Durant, Szczerbiak, Wilcox, and Collison/Swift (depending on the matchup; if everything's even go with Collison) need to be there at the beginning of the game. Ridnour provides a spark off the bench, but he trails off quickly at this point. Watson is the best option right now. Wilkins might be better suited in a role off the bench, though he might come out gunning, which isn't good for anyone. Green is going to be inconsistent, and Coach Carlesimo has shown he's going to ride him if he's hot, and bench him when he's not. Delonte West is going to have to turn it up. I saw him on a milk carton at lunch today.

-------------------------------------Quickie Preview-------------------------------------------
Who: Memphis Grizzlies (0-2) @ Seattle Supersonics (0-4)
Where: Key Arena, Seattle
When: 7:00 PM PST

Key Matchup: Nick Collison vs. Pau Gasol. Gasol is one of the best big men in the league (24.22 PER last year), and its going to take an outstanding performance to limit him tonight. He's had a strained back and missed some practice time earlier this week, but the Grizzlies have had 3 off days since their last game. Collison will likely be the primary defender for Gasol, and can't let him dominate. The Sonics did have success slowing Gasol last year, as he average 16 points and 7 rebounds in 3 games last year. He hasn't been lighting it up so far this year, so catching Gasol at less than full strength could be the break the Sonics need.

Who to Watch: I'm a big fan of point guard Kyle Lowry for the Grizzlies. I think he might be available, as they have something of a glut at the point guard position (with Lowry, Damon Stoudamire, and rookie Mike Conley Jr.). Either Lowry or Conley would make a nice fit in the Sonics youth movement, and I'd really like to Sam Presti try to work a trade for one of them. I assume they are keeping Conley since they just drafted him, but shhh....Lowry might be the better player. Get it done Sonics. Thank me later.

Prediction: I've learned my lesson. The Grizzlies aren't good, but they are certainly better than the Kings, who are one of the worst teams in the league. I'll hope the Sonics will be more prepared as this is their 5th game while its only the 3rd for the Grizzlies, but I'm going to try out the reverse jinx tonight. The pick: Grizzlies 111 Sonics 102.

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