0-5: What we know, What to do going forward

Going into this season the fans goals were as follows:

1) Make the playoffs
2) Don't screw up Kevin Durant

The expectations were quite a bit different, as most fans realized this was more than likely going to be an extremely tough year for the Sonics. As it stand right now (based off of Pythagorean Projections), the Sonics are expected to win about 14 games this year, which would rank them among the worst teams in recent history. Obviously it is extremely early, which means the sample size of points scored vs. points allowed is way too small to make an accurate projection, but it does give a picture of the kind of trouble the Sonics are in. For those that don't know, Pythagorean projections are based off of 2 numbers: points scored per game and points allowed per game. To give you an idea of the accuracy of these projections, last years Sonics gave up 102 ppg and scored 99.8. According to the Pythagorean projection, a team with those scoring numbers should average 31.4 wins in a 82 game season. The Sonics won 31. But as I said its early. Current projections would have the Bobcats (outscored by 14.5 ppg so far this season) winning 6 games on the season. They're actually 2-2 with two close wins and two blowout losses. But it all tends to even out over the season.

So the current level the Sonics are playing at is going to win about 14 games and put them right in the hunt for 1st overall pick in the draft (we're going to talk about the draft ALOT as we get a better idea of how good/bad the Sonics are and as the college season plays out). And for fans with long-term vision, maybe the best thing for the franchise is to lose a ton and pair Kevin Durant with whomever the best available college player is. But its hard watching your team lose night after night, and it isn't going to sit any better with the players. Plus, as Boston, Memphis and Milwaukee proved last year, sometimes losing big isn't all its cracked up to be. I'm okay with the Sonics having a tough year, but I'd much rather see them win 30 games as opposed to 15. With that said, here are a few things that need to happen for the Sonics to improve.

1. Find a player at the point guard posistion. I know a lot of fans want to see Luke Ridnour at the point. He's not a great player, and his defense stinks, but Earl Watson is playing terrible. Coach Carlesimo can't keep giving him 30 minutes a night for some assists, and defensive ability that peaked three years ago. How bad has Earl been offensively: he's checking in with a PER (which measures everything except positional defense) of 6.95 after 5 games, which is basically CBA level. Want to know something shocking? Wait for it...

Luke Ridnour has been worse. Ridnour has a PER of 3.02 in about 10 mpg off the bench for the Sonics. And again, that's not even considering defensive skills, in which there is no doubt Watson is the superior player. That said, you might expect Luke is slowed by his face-mask, and lack of minutes to get into the flow. As bad as Ridnour as been, I think you know what you are getting with Watson at this point. Opponents at least have to respect Ridnour's offensive ability a little bit. With Delonte West backing up Durant at shooting guard, the Sonics have two options. Watson's had five games to show what he can do. Give Ridnour a chance.

2. Help Durant get easier looks. Durant has shown he's not afraid to shoot the ball (ESPN ran a stat today showing Durant had the 2nd most shot attempts for a rookie through 5 games of all time), but he still hasn't quite differentiated good shots from bad. Coach Carlesimo needs to let Durant get the ball in different places. He can score from literally anywhere on the floor, why not give him some looks in the post? Why not run him off some screens? Durant can create his own shot, but when its not falling, the team needs to give him some help. One impressive note: with his shot not falling last night against the Grizz, Durant went to the free throw line 10 times, almost doubling his # of attempts in the first 4 games combined. His shot isn't going to fall every night, especially when he's as perimeter oriented as he is right now. But if he can get to the line like this...his off nights can still help the team.

3. Start feeding Wilcox in the post. After 5 games, Chris Wilcox has been the best player on the team. He's had 4 good games against 1 no-show, a dramatic improvement since last year. He's basically the only option for interior scoring on the team. He needs to be ridden as hard as possible. If Wilcox can start to demand a double team, the team has several good shooters (Durant, Szczerbiak, Wilkins), all of whom can make the opposing team pay for leaving them open.

4. Keep your head up. I know its been a tough start for the year, but outside of the Western Elite, the Conference is as weak as its been in years. In the Northwest division alone, the Sonics have 8 games against the Timberwolves and the Trail Blazers, who are 1-6 on the season. The Pacific Division boasts the Kings and the Warriors (1-7), and the Lakers who will likely fall apart whenever they trade Kobe. There are some really good teams, but there are alot of bad teams too. Even after an 0-5 start, there are still alot of wins left on the table.