Game 4: Sonics - Kings Preview

Who: Seattle Supersonics (0-3) @ Sacramento Kings (0-3)

Where: ARCO Arena, Sacramento, CA

When: 10:00 pm EST/7:00 pm PST

About the Kings...

• The Kings will be without Mike Bibby (2006-2007 PER: 16.07) and Ron Artest (18.59), their starting point guard and small forward. The loss of Artest is on defense is significant as he's long been one of the best lock-down defenders in the league, and would have had the task of shutting down Kevin Durant. In his place, John Salmons is having his best season, averaging over 20 ppg and 6 apg through the first 3 games. Mike Bibby is a bigger loss in name only as his game has declined over the past two years. His 16.07 PER last year was only slightly above league average. Salmons has been shockingly good through the first 3 games, and is likely playing above his head. I expect him to come back to earth soon, and hope its against the Sonics.



• The Kings are led by 6'7" shooting guard Kevin Martin who exploded onto the season after two relatively non-descript years by averaging over 20 ppg last year. He's an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's been even better this year averaging 25 ppg through the first 3 games. He will score on whoever guards him, but he isn't a physical player, as he's listed at only 185 pounds. The Sonics have to hope Durant's length gives Martin trouble.



• In the frontcourt, the Kings have two veterans who had their production fall off of a cliff after they were paired together last year. Shareef Abdur-Rahim's PER dropped nearly 4 points last year to 13.16, and Brad Miller had a similar 4 point fall to 13.56. No one is rebounding for the Kings, as John Salmon leads the team with 5.3 rpg. Abdur-Rahim has been so disappointing that he is only getting about 14 mpg as Mikki Moore has been taking most of the minutes next to Brad Miller after a 'career' year with the Nets. Moore is the exact type of player the Sonics need to avoid wasting money on over the next few years, as the Kings inexplicably gave him a 3 year $18 million dollar year after he put up 9.8 ppg and 5.4 rpg for the Nets last year.


• While both teams need a win, to avoid starting the season 0-4, the Kings will be energized by playing their home opener. Expect a packed house to welcome the Kings home in one of the rowdiest environments in the league.

About the Sonics...

• This game will be a contrast of styles. The Sonics have been playing at the fastest pace in the league, with a pace factor of 108.7 while the Kings have been one of the slowest teams in the league checking in at 93.1. The pace factor gives the average number of possessions used by a team each game. It's worth noting that Sonics have played the three fastest teams in the league thus far, possibly artificially inflating their pace, but at the same time, if the Kings slow down the pace to their standard, the Sonics are unlikely to win a halfcourt based game.


• At the same time, the Sonics are one of least efficient teams on offense, averaging just 91 points per 100 possessions while the Kings have only been slightly better averaging 97 points.


• Believe it or not, the Kings have been SIGNIFICANTLY worse on defense thus far, with a defensive efficiency of 115.8, allowing over 9 points more per 100 possession than the Sonics. This is masked partially by the Kings extremely slow pace.


• Chris Wilcox has a great chance to have another strong game against a weak Kings frontline. Wilcox will likely have to guard Mikki Moore, which means his defensive responsibilities will be limited to blocking out.


• Without Artest, the Kings have no one who can pretend to check Durant. He has a great chance for his first 30 point game in the NBA.


• The three headed monster of Earl Watson/Delonte West/Luke Ridnour need to have a breakout game. The Kings will play long stretches of time with no one quick enough to keep up with the Sonic guards. Pushing the tempo at all times will pay off for the Sonics.

The pick: I was intent on picking the Kings in their home opener, until I saw just how poor the Kings have been defensively. Durant scores 31 and the Sonics break away with a 103-91 win.