Sene a mistake? + Spurs Preview

The Seattle Times Sonics Notebook has a quote from Coach Carlesimo talking about the coming increase in minutes for Mouhamed Sene. Sene has shown almost nothing in a little over a year in the NBA, but the Sonics knew that he was raw and might take several years to develop. The Sonics have deservedly taken alot of heat for drafting big man projects the last three years, but take a look at the 10 players taken after Sene:

Pick Player

11 JJ Reddick

12 Hilton Armstong
13 Thabo Sefolosha
14 Ronnie Brewer
15 Cedric Simmons
16 Rodney Carney
17 Shawne Williams
18 Oleksiy Pecherov

19 Quincy Douby
20 Renaldo Balkman

Not exactly a murder's row. Of those players, Brewer was buried on the Utah bench last year, but has really broken out this year, Balkman is a nice energy player for the Knicks, and Quincy Douby gave the Sonics trouble in their game with Sacramento earlier this season. That's about the entire impact of the players the Sonics might have concievably drafted instead of Sene. I don't think you can mark this one down as a big loss when compared to who the Sonics could have had.

Now drafting Robert Swift (#12) over Al Jefferson (#15)...now that was a mistake.

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Everyone knows the Spurs are good. They are the obvious favorite to win their 5th championship of the Duncan era, and are blistering the league so far with a 11-2 record (I guess you could say the Spurs have been as good this year as the Sonics have been bad. The Spurs big three are playing at an all-star level right now, led by Manu Ginobili who has been out of this world so far, with a MVP-like PER of 30.49. The only other player over 30 is Lebron James. This is the 4th year in a row that Ginobili has played at an all-star level, but he's due his odd substitution pattern (Ginobili is a 6th man), and his low minutes (27.5 mpg this year), he doesn't put up the numbers or have the cache necessary to get to the all-star game, let alone MVP award contention. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan have played up to their usual high standards, and as such we might be looking at a blowout. Based off of PER, the Spurs have 3 of the league's 16 best players. They've played together for years, and will have every advantage possible against the Sonics.

The Spurs rank 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency (107.7 points for every 100 possessions), and 4th in the league in defensive efficiency (allowing 98.2 points for every 100 possessions) which is a deadly combination for Spurs opponents. The Spurs have a reputation as a methodical team, which is back up by the numbers, as the Spurs play at the 3rd slowest pace in the game (as opposed to the Sonics who play at the 2nd fast pace). They rarely turn the ball over (3rd best turnover rate), while the Sonics love to give the ball away (4th worst turnover rate). You get the idea. As Colin Cowherd would say "They're just better." Sorry. I think he's obnoxious too, but its a good quote.

So, can the Sonics win? Of Course! This is the NBA, and anyone can have a bad night. The Sonics play at home, but that hasn't been that much of an advantage thus far, as their actually scoring less and allowing more points at home. So much for a young team being energized. Expect a Spurs win.

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11/25/2007 Sunday NBA picks

San Antonio (-9) over Seattle

Toronto (-4) over Chicago

(Yesterday 0-3, 14-13 overall) The Lord Giveth, and the Lord Taketh Away