Sunday, November 18, 2007

Numbers Breakdown: 11 games into the season

What we know, 11 games into the season.

The Sonics will have at least 3 solid scoring options for this season. We knew/hoped that Durant would be able to score 20 ppg, and he has (+/- a few points). Durant isn't hitting enough shots, but he's still a consistent scorer who is already drawing a lot of attention from opposing defenses.

Damien Wilkins has made a significant jump, averaging 17.1 ppg, but he has improved in all aspects of his offensive game, shooting nearly 50% from the field, and raising his 40 minute averages across the board. His improvement basically came out of nowhere, as there was nothing in his past that suggested he would make these kind of improvements with increased playing time, but regardless, Wilkins has been one of the best stories of the young season for the Sonics. He has had the best individual game of the season with 41 vs. the Hawks, which led to one of the Sonics' two wins. He's shooting nearly 53% from behind the arc, and he's hitting the boards harder, averaging almost 6 per game.

The third part of the Sonics triumvirate, is the athletic big man, Chris Wilcox. Despite averaging only 31.5 minutes per game, Wilcox is averaging career highs in points (16.2) and rebounds (8.1). Wilcox will easily be a 20/10 guy if he got the requisite 40 minutes per game. As I said in my last post, I'm not sure what is holding back Wilcox's minutes. Luckily he's not holding back, and is the Sonics strongest post presence.

Anyone who's watched a Sonic game this year could guess that Durant, Wilcox, and Wilkins are the three leading scorers for the team. But I wonder how many people would guess that the Sonics number 5 overall draft pick, Jeff Green was the 4th leading scorer, at 9.6 ppg along with 4.6 rpg. Green has been getting it done in 21.4 minutes. It's going to be difficult for Green to break into the starting lineup this year, as the forward positions are being manned by Wilkins and Wilcox (perhaps Green's play is one reason Wilcox's minutes have been limited), but he's making the most of his chances, and has shown steady improvement. Later in the year, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sonics go to a lineup with Wilcox at Center, Green at Power forward, and Wilkins at Small Forward, putting the best players all on the floor at the same time.

Nick Collison mans the center position for the Sonics and has been almost exactly average, with 8 points and 8 rebounds per game, and a PER of 13.41, which is right in line with his career average of just over 14. Since he hasn't shown any real improvement in his 4 years in the league, you know exactly what you are getting with Collison now. A solid, average frontcourt player, who's willing to take the abuse of guarding bigger stronger players. Collison is a solid asset to have on the team, and it's niced to see him locked up for a few more years at a reasonable price.

Now comes the diaster, the point guard position. Earl Watson: 8.69 PER. Delonte West: 9.36 PER. Luke Ridnour: 4.34 PER. Through 1/8 of the season, the Sonics haven't had rotation-level performance from the point guard position that is playing 48 minutes per game. Out of the three, Watson is acknowledged as the best perimeter defender, and as such as gotten the majority of the minutes. While West has the most offensive upside, and has in fact played the best (outside of positional defense), Watson has played below his past level, and is likely to improve as the season continues. I'd like to see Watson and West split the minutes equally, with Ridnour basically relegated to a bench role. West could develop into a starting caliber player, so he needs minutes, but Watson is the best option right now.

The only other players of note have been Wally Szczerbiak who has been average apart from his explosion against Sacramento. In fact, he's only scored in double figures 2 other times this season, averaging 9.1 ppg on the season. Kurt Thomas has been injured much of the season, but he will join the big man rotation should he get healthy this season.

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