In the midst of a 13-game losing streak, the Sonics have dropped to the second worst record in the NBA. While a difficult season was expected by almost all NBA analysts, Sonics fans held out hope for a competitive team who would improve as the season went on, and perhaps win 30+ games.
That hasn't happened. The Sonics need players, plain and simple. Right now there are only two players who are likely untouchable on the Sonics roster: Durant and Green. In reality, Green could be traded, but its unlikely the Sonics want to give up on him after 1 season, or that other teams are willing to give a good enough offer. Unfortuneatly both players are playing out of position right now, with Coach Carlesimo pushing Durant into the shooting guard position, and Green playing most of his post-November minutes at the small forward position. While both might develop into these positions, I think both would be better served to develop at their more natural positions of small forward for Durant, and power forward for Green. A move to small forward for Durant would give him more matchup advangtages and allow him to get closer to the basket (it's going to be much easier for him to take a small forward off the dribble as opposed to a typical shooting guard), rebound more and increase his general aggressiveness. One of Durant's strengths in college was his tremendous rebounding ability which has been almost eradicated in the NBA. Green might make sense at the small forward position eventually, but he isn't a good enough outside shooter, and would have a significant quickness advangtage at power forward. I'll assume the Sonics management is smart enough to recognize that these two are playing out of position and eventually move them. But if not, I'll rank the Sonics needs as
1) Point Guard
2) Center
3) Power Forward
4) Shooting Guard
5) Small Forward
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Chad Ford, ESPN.com's lead NBA draft analyst (and the best draft projector out there) lists five players as the consensus top players in the draft. As it stands, the Sonics would pick no worse than 5th overall at this point, with a reasonable chance to pick first overall. As such, we'll break down the top collegians who might end up with the Sonics next year, and try to rank them in order of preference. Ford puts Kansas State's Micheal Beasley, Memphis' Derrick Rose, Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan, Indiana's Eric Gordon and USC's OJ Mayo at the top of his draft list. NBAdraft.net has an identical top 5, with the exception of omitting OJ Mayo (ranked #9 overall) for Syracuse's Donte Green.
A closer look of each of top prospects:
1) Micheal Beasley 6-9, 235 Power Forward. Freshman.
Beasley is the consensus top player in the 2008 draft, averaging over 25 points and 12 rebounds for a surprising Kansas State squad. Beasley is the total package with athletiscm, aggression and skill, and is putting up the stats too match. He even has shooting range, hitting over 38% from 3-point range, and is packing a defensive punch by averaging almost 2 blocks per game. The downside? There are some questions about Beasley's character as he went to numerous high schools and is said to have somewhat questionable work habits. However, questionable work habits or not, Beasley produces like no other on the court, and it will be a surprise if he goes anywhere short of # 1 overall.
Sonics Perspective: Beasley is an excellent prospect who would provide a much needed frontcourt presence. Should the Sonics land the top overall pick, Beasley should be a slam dunk. However, we don't know how much the new management will value character in player evaluations. The Spurs created their dynasty by surrounding one elite player with high-character guys who play together and stay out of trouble. Will the Sonics be concerned about adding Beasley, who might not perfectly fit the Sonics' organizational design?
2. Derrick Rose 6-4, 195 Point Guard. Freshman
Rose is the starting point guard for the #1 team in the nation, the Memphis Tigers. Rose is averaging almost 15 points and 4 assists per game for one of the deepest teams in the NCAA. Rose has all the tools to be an elite point guard in the NBA, with great size, athletiscm, and ball-skills. By all accounts, Rose should be a high level NBA point guard. Outside of his modest statistics (compared to Beasley anyway), there aren't a lot negatives for Rose. He is probably quiet for a point guard, and is unlikely to be the spiritual leader on the floor. However, his basketball skills are without question.
Sonics Perspective: Rose fits the Sonics needs in a variety of ways. He is a talented point guard, that would immediately upgrade the Sonics on offense, and open up more fastbreak points. He would be another piece of the Sonics long term plan, and should help Durant and Green progress in the pro game.
3. DeAndre Jordan 7-0, 240 Center. Freshman
Jordan is the elite physical specimen of the class of 2008 with a tremendous combination of size and athleticism. Jordan is all potential, as his college stats of 9.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game are pedestrian compared to Beasley. However, Jordan has been limited to 21 minutes per game by Texas A&M coach Mark Turgeon, which has artifically lowered his stats. If Jordan was playing the 30 minutes per game his talent would seem to demand, he would be comfortably be averaging a double double (~14 points and 10 boards per game). Jordan is extremely raw with almost no offensive game (he shoots over 70% from the field because he only shoots either putbacks or open dunks). Jordan shoots under 40% from the free throw line. That would make Shaq cringe even in his worst season.
Sonics Perspective: Jordan would seem to be a better prospect than any of the 3 centers the Sonics drafted from 2004-2006, all of whom could be called busts at this point. His upside would suggest he could be a Tyson Chandler type player after a few years of development. But keep in mind, it took Chandler 5-6 years to become the player he currently is for the Western Conference leading New Orleans Hornets. Jordan is a classic boom or bust prospect, and I doubt the Sonics are in the mood to take a big chance with such a cruicial pick. It's unlikely that Jordan will ever score more than 15 points per game in the pros. Yesterday, playing against a Oklahoma State team with no tangible post presence or size (future NBA small forward Marcus Dove was the closest thing to a 'post' that Oklahoma State has), Jordan was a non-factor, even though he was by far the most gifted inside player on the floor. Jordan has a lot of development to do, and I'm not sure if the Sonics want to wait to see if his tree will bare any fruit.
4. Eric Gordon 6-5, 205 Shooting Guard. Freshman.
Gordon has been the best player on a quality Indiana team, immediately taking over as the leading scorer and go-to guy on a veteran Hoosier team. Gordon is a tremendous scorer, pumping in over 22 ppg on almost 50% shooting, including 41% from 3-point range. Gordon should be able to score 15 ppg right off the bat at the NBA level. Gordon has great athletiscm and a great shooting stroke, but is going to rank a little lower due to his size. He's listed at 6'5" which is fine, but the prototype NBA shooting guard is 6'6" to 6'7" (or 6'9" in Coach Carlesimo's mind). He might struggle to find a NBA position, much like Jeff Green.
Sonics Perspective: Gordon would fill a need of sorts for the Sonics, and hopefully force Kevin Durant to play the small forward position. On a team so devoid of offense, Gordon's shooting ability would be a tremendous boon, both opening up the court and adding points to the scoreboard. Gordon's only question is size, as he's answered everything else. Scouts don't believe he can transition to point guard (a la Gilbert Arenas or Dwyane Wade), so he'll be stuck as an undersized '2'. Ray Allen made it work with elite shooting ability. Can Gordon?
5. OJ Mayo 6-4, 195 Freshman. Shooting Guard
Everyone knows Mayo's name; he's been the next LeBron for 5 years now. Mayo finally made it to college, and has been pretty good. He's average almost 20 ppg with 4 rebound and 3 assists on 45% shooting. For any other player, that would be enough, but for a player with Mayo's hype, it's seen as a bit of a disappointment. However, don't be fooled. Mayo is still a tremendous talent and has a great shot at being an All-Star down the line.
Sonics Perspective: Mayo's unquestionable talent aside, there are huge character concerns. Whether its because of the spotlight or not, Mayo is in the news alot for reasons that aren't usually good. He was ejected from his last high school game for punting a ball into the stands. He had a bizarre recruitment which ended with Mayo essentially calling USC coach Tim Floyd and telling him that he was coming. Floyd hadn't been recruiting Mayo at that point. Just this last week, Mayo got into hot water for accepting tickets to a Denver Nugget's game courtesoy of Carmelo Anthony. Mayo is talented and might actually be underrated due to his 'disappointing' year. Just don't expect the Sonics and GM Sam Presti to draft him.
6. Donte Greene 6-8, 215 Freshman. Small Forward.
Greene has rocketed up the draft charts this season with his great play for the Orange of Syracuse. He is averaging almost 18 and 8, while shooting 38% from 3-point range and adding 2 blocks per game for good measure. Greene has actually improved upon his high school numbers (how often does that happen) indicating he is either improving at an incredible rate, or was that bored by his high school competition. He has way more upside than the Green that the Sonics took last year.
Sonics Perspective: Greene is one of the high risers in the draft, could jump even higher as the season continues. However, due to the glut of small fowards on their roster, if the Sonics take Greene, you either have to question the front office's sanity or take it as an acknowledgement that the front office whiffed on the Jeff Green pick last year. I don't Greene will end up with the Sonic's but his talent is impressive. He might be the 3rd best player in the draft.
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Based on this breakdown, I think the Sonics draft board looks something like this:
1) Micheal Beasley
2) Derrick Rose
3) Eric Gordon
4) Donte Greene
5) DeAndre Jordan
6) OJ Mayo
I think the Sonics will be hoping for a top-2 pick, as both options would fill an immediate need and are enormously talented. Gordon and Greene are both talented players, but aren't natural fits for the Sonics. Jordan is very talented, but I think (hope?) the Sonics have a faster timeline for success then waiting for 5 years for Jordan to develop. And Mayo is just too much of a character risk.
All that said, I'd kill just to see this losing streak end. This is painful.
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