As I'm back to consistently posting, now seems as good a time as any to reflect on the Sonics' troubles in the month as January. The symptoms are obvious. The Sonics are 0-7 for the month, losing by an average of 14.4 ppg. How bad have they been? The worst team in the league, with the corresponding worst point differential (the Minnesota Timberwolves), are actually 5 ppg better on the season. The numbers are staggering: losing by 18 @ Phoenix, by 22 @ Washington, by 20 vs. Dallas, and the 31 point debacle @ New Orleans last night.
So what's the problem? Offense. The defense has remained stunningly consistent over the course of the season allowing ~ 104 ppg allowed in every month. But the offense has fallen off a cliff, as the Sonics are barely averging 90 ppg in 2008. After shooting 44% as a team through the first 2 months of the season, the Sonics are struggling to crack 40% as a team (should we call the Earl Watson line?) Who are the chief offenders? It's easier to just single out who's shooting well. Szczerbiak, Collison, Thomas, and Chris Wilcox are all over 50%, i.e. the best shooter on the team and three interior players who get half of their points off of put-backs. Not that playing inside is an automatic pass to a high shooting percentage; Johan Petro is stuggling to crack the Watson line at 40.5%. Everyone else on the team, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER, is shooting under 40%. Four players are somehow shooting under 30%, which is almost unthinkable for a NBA caliber player for any reasonable sample size (and 7 games is getting close to 10% of a season). Delonte West shoots the ball 7 times a game and makes 25% of his shots. That's not good.
What has to change? I don't know. Durant is actually playing pretty well, aside from the 6-26 abomination vs. the Lakers (probably costing the Sonics their only win this year). Collison and Szczerbiak have both been very good. Szczerbiak just needs more minutes (and shots...he needs about 15 shots per game, he's only shooting the ball 10 times per game right now), and Collison is playing at the highest level of his career by posting a double-double for 2008. I'm not going to kill Jeff Green for falling into a rookie funk, and Wilcox has been injured and only played in 3 games with limited minutes. On the flipside, the Watson/Ridnour/West triumverate continues to disappoint making fixing the point guard position priority #1 in the off-season. Damien Wilkins apparently thought the season ended in mid-December...he's averaging 3 ppg in January. Johan Petro has been roughly twice as good as him. I can't put it in any stronger terms than that.
What comes next? More losses in all likelihood. The Sonics have a very winnable game vs. Memphis on Friday, but follow that with an unwinnable game @ Dallas and then 2 straight vs. Houston. Yao Ming will probably score about 80 points alone in those two games. It would be surprising for the Sonics to win 2 games in this stretch if they were playing well...at this point we all need to cross our fingers and hope they can surprise Memphis tomorrow. If they can't win one of these four...you're going to start reading a lot of columns about the draft.
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