Sonics Streak: 2 games (Sonics 101 Cavs 95)

I guess the Sonics are just a streaky team. After finally ending the a 14 game losing streak Tuesday night against the San Antonio Spurs (minus Tony Parker), the Sonics are officially on a tear, beating the Cleveland Cavs (minus LeBron James) 101-95. Despite the relatively close final score, the Sonics controlled the game, opening up a 16 point lead in the first quarter, outscoring the Cavs 40-24. The Sonics' replicated Tuesday night's formula, with Kevin Durant leading the way with 24 points on 10-16 shooting, aided by Chris Wilcox (18 and 13), Jeff Green (17 points on 8-8 shooting), and Kurt Thomas (16 and 6).

Some might say that the Sonics looked out, facing the Cavs while they were missing their best player (and the best player in the NBA). But the fact of the matter is, that the Sonics shot over 56% as a team and dished out a remarkable 34 assists on 44 made baskets. In fact, the Sonics had more assists than the Cavs had made baskets, which is something that rarely happens. Earl Watson had a typical 2-6 shooting night, but more for made up for it with 12 assists. Kevin Durant continued his trend of filling up the stat sheet, adding 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks. He did have 5 turnovers in this game, but it turned out to be of little consequence.

It's hard to imagine ending a month with a 2-13 record and momentum, but that's exactly what the Sonics have done in halting their painful, PAINFUL, losing streak, and then beating both of the 2007 NBA Finals participants. The Sonics open up February with 2 more winnable games at home vs. the Knicks and Chicago, before hitting the road for games vs. the Kings and Suns. I'm trying not to read too much into the last two wins, both of which were against teams missing a key player (and in the case of Cleveland, the league MVP), but you have to figure the Sonics are good for a win vs. the Knicks, and at least 50/50 vs. the Bulls.

One last note: KD might be turning the corner. Watch out NBA.

SONICS WIN! SONICS WIN!

After losing to Philadelphia, Phoenix, Washington, Cleveland, New Jersey, Dallas, the Lakers, New Orleans, Memphis, Dallas (again), Houston, Houston (again), Atlanta and Sacramento, the Sonics finally broke through in 2008 with a win against the defending champion San Antonio Spurs. Kevin Durant was terrific scoring 26 points, including what turned out to be the winning basket with 32 seconds left in the game to put the Sonics ahead by 1. After Fabrice Oberto (Duncan and Ginobili and this guy is taking pressure shots?) couldn't convert a layup on the other end, Luke Ridnour padded the lead with two clutch free throws. Manu Ginobili then missed a 3-pointer and that was all she wrote for the Sonics long, long, long losing streak.

Durant's 26 points came on 9-19 shooting, which he complemented with a perfect 7-7 night from the free throw line. To top it off, Durant stuffed the stat sheet with 7 rebounds and his second consecutive 5-assist game to go along with a steal, a block and only 1 turnover. The Sonics' big men stepped it up bigtime against the Spurs with Chris Wilcox leading the way with 16 points and 10 boards. Not to be outdone, Nick Collison scored 14 and added 10 boards of his own, and Kurt Thomas put up 10 and 6, including two absolutely crucial jumpers with less than 2 minutes which allowed the Sonics to convert possessions down the stretch. As big as Durant's shot was, the Sonics wouldn't have won this game without the big veteran knocking down clutch shots in the halfcourt offense.

With Tony Parker sitting out the game tonight, you might think that this is one game where the Sonics actualy have an advantage at point guard with the Spurs starting career backup Jacque Vaughn. You'd be wrong. Earl Watson went a remarkable 0-8 from the field scoring his only 2 points on a pair of free throws. Luke Ridnour was almost as bad going just 1-6 from the field, but taking advangtage of the oppurtunity for redemption by hitting the clutch free throws with under a minute left.

Long term, what does this do for the team? Not much in terms of overall record, as the damage has been done. But I promise you, this is a big monkey off of the team's back. Losing leads to more losing, and the Sonic's need their core to learn how to win together. It's a good thing I'm not a GM. I'd be resigning Kurt Thomas to a 10-year $75 million deal right now if I was GM.

Next Target: The Cleveland Cavs on Thursday night. You're next Lebron.

Sonic Streak: 14 Games ( Sacramento 103 Supersonics 101)

And the streak reached 14 consecutive games tonight in a horrifying 103-101 last second loss to the Sacramento Kings. After Damien Wilkins hit a huge 3-pointer to tie the game at 101 with 6 seconds left, Kevin Martin lowered the boom with a buzzer-beater to leave the Sonics hopes crashed once again. While fans can take heart in the fact that the Sonics have had an oppurtunity to win 3 of the last four games, the fact is 14 losses in a row is 14 losses in a row. Kevin Durant had another tough shooting night, hammering away for a 5-20 night. He did show some progress, by salvaging his horrible night by going 9-10 from the free throw line to finish with 19 points and 5 assists( hey if you're going to miss 15 shots, at least you can pass the ball a bit). Kurt Thomas had a very strong game vs. a weak Kings frontline, checking in with 15 points and 10 rebounds in just 28 minutes. Earl Watson had 10 points and 8 assists despite shooting just 33% from the field.

Obviously if you lose a buzzer-beater, you probably didn't play that bad, and that was the case for the Sonics as they pounded the glass vs. the Kings, out-rebounding them 45-36 (thanks to a 15-6 edge in offensive rebounds). But the Kings were better when it counted, going 23-26 from the free-throw line, compared to the Sonics 29-39 showing, and coming up with big shots down the stretch (Kevin Martin in particular shook off a toough night to make them when it counted). Despite the Sonics big edge in offensive rebounds, both the Sonics and Kings attempted 81 shots, which is surprising due to the Sonics percieved edge in possessions.

The loss vs. the Rockets Wednesday night was more painful due to the fact that the Sonics actually had a lead with just 2 minutes to go as compared to tonight where the Sonics had to hit a huge shot just to get it to overtime, but anytime you lose with a buzzer-beater its painful. The Sonics get a chance to buck this losing streak vs. the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night, and then meet the runner-up Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday. The only good news is that the moderately dreadful New York Knicks visit on Saturday, giving the Sonics a reasonable chance at a home win. The bad news is that the two games vs. the Spurs and Cavs mean that the Sonics stand a very good chance at going winless in January. Thats the kind of statsistic that really hurts morale.

On the plus side, another month of losses or two and we'll be right at the top of the lottery.

Draft Watch: January

In the midst of a 13-game losing streak, the Sonics have dropped to the second worst record in the NBA. While a difficult season was expected by almost all NBA analysts, Sonics fans held out hope for a competitive team who would improve as the season went on, and perhaps win 30+ games.

That hasn't happened. The Sonics need players, plain and simple. Right now there are only two players who are likely untouchable on the Sonics roster: Durant and Green. In reality, Green could be traded, but its unlikely the Sonics want to give up on him after 1 season, or that other teams are willing to give a good enough offer. Unfortuneatly both players are playing out of position right now, with Coach Carlesimo pushing Durant into the shooting guard position, and Green playing most of his post-November minutes at the small forward position. While both might develop into these positions, I think both would be better served to develop at their more natural positions of small forward for Durant, and power forward for Green. A move to small forward for Durant would give him more matchup advangtages and allow him to get closer to the basket (it's going to be much easier for him to take a small forward off the dribble as opposed to a typical shooting guard), rebound more and increase his general aggressiveness. One of Durant's strengths in college was his tremendous rebounding ability which has been almost eradicated in the NBA. Green might make sense at the small forward position eventually, but he isn't a good enough outside shooter, and would have a significant quickness advangtage at power forward. I'll assume the Sonics management is smart enough to recognize that these two are playing out of position and eventually move them. But if not, I'll rank the Sonics needs as

1) Point Guard
2) Center
3) Power Forward
4) Shooting Guard
5) Small Forward

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chad Ford, ESPN.com's lead NBA draft analyst (and the best draft projector out there) lists five players as the consensus top players in the draft. As it stands, the Sonics would pick no worse than 5th overall at this point, with a reasonable chance to pick first overall. As such, we'll break down the top collegians who might end up with the Sonics next year, and try to rank them in order of preference. Ford puts Kansas State's Micheal Beasley, Memphis' Derrick Rose, Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan, Indiana's Eric Gordon and USC's OJ Mayo at the top of his draft list. NBAdraft.net has an identical top 5, with the exception of omitting OJ Mayo (ranked #9 overall) for Syracuse's Donte Green.

A closer look of each of top prospects:

1) Micheal Beasley 6-9, 235 Power Forward. Freshman.
Beasley is the consensus top player in the 2008 draft, averaging over 25 points and 12 rebounds for a surprising Kansas State squad. Beasley is the total package with athletiscm, aggression and skill, and is putting up the stats too match. He even has shooting range, hitting over 38% from 3-point range, and is packing a defensive punch by averaging almost 2 blocks per game. The downside? There are some questions about Beasley's character as he went to numerous high schools and is said to have somewhat questionable work habits. However, questionable work habits or not, Beasley produces like no other on the court, and it will be a surprise if he goes anywhere short of # 1 overall.

Sonics Perspective: Beasley is an excellent prospect who would provide a much needed frontcourt presence. Should the Sonics land the top overall pick, Beasley should be a slam dunk. However, we don't know how much the new management will value character in player evaluations. The Spurs created their dynasty by surrounding one elite player with high-character guys who play together and stay out of trouble. Will the Sonics be concerned about adding Beasley, who might not perfectly fit the Sonics' organizational design?

2. Derrick Rose 6-4, 195 Point Guard. Freshman
Rose is the starting point guard for the #1 team in the nation, the Memphis Tigers. Rose is averaging almost 15 points and 4 assists per game for one of the deepest teams in the NCAA. Rose has all the tools to be an elite point guard in the NBA, with great size, athletiscm, and ball-skills. By all accounts, Rose should be a high level NBA point guard. Outside of his modest statistics (compared to Beasley anyway), there aren't a lot negatives for Rose. He is probably quiet for a point guard, and is unlikely to be the spiritual leader on the floor. However, his basketball skills are without question.

Sonics Perspective: Rose fits the Sonics needs in a variety of ways. He is a talented point guard, that would immediately upgrade the Sonics on offense, and open up more fastbreak points. He would be another piece of the Sonics long term plan, and should help Durant and Green progress in the pro game.

3. DeAndre Jordan 7-0, 240 Center. Freshman
Jordan is the elite physical specimen of the class of 2008 with a tremendous combination of size and athleticism. Jordan is all potential, as his college stats of 9.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game are pedestrian compared to Beasley. However, Jordan has been limited to 21 minutes per game by Texas A&M coach Mark Turgeon, which has artifically lowered his stats. If Jordan was playing the 30 minutes per game his talent would seem to demand, he would be comfortably be averaging a double double (~14 points and 10 boards per game). Jordan is extremely raw with almost no offensive game (he shoots over 70% from the field because he only shoots either putbacks or open dunks). Jordan shoots under 40% from the free throw line. That would make Shaq cringe even in his worst season.

Sonics Perspective: Jordan would seem to be a better prospect than any of the 3 centers the Sonics drafted from 2004-2006, all of whom could be called busts at this point. His upside would suggest he could be a Tyson Chandler type player after a few years of development. But keep in mind, it took Chandler 5-6 years to become the player he currently is for the Western Conference leading New Orleans Hornets. Jordan is a classic boom or bust prospect, and I doubt the Sonics are in the mood to take a big chance with such a cruicial pick. It's unlikely that Jordan will ever score more than 15 points per game in the pros. Yesterday, playing against a Oklahoma State team with no tangible post presence or size (future NBA small forward Marcus Dove was the closest thing to a 'post' that Oklahoma State has), Jordan was a non-factor, even though he was by far the most gifted inside player on the floor. Jordan has a lot of development to do, and I'm not sure if the Sonics want to wait to see if his tree will bare any fruit.

4. Eric Gordon 6-5, 205 Shooting Guard. Freshman.
Gordon has been the best player on a quality Indiana team, immediately taking over as the leading scorer and go-to guy on a veteran Hoosier team. Gordon is a tremendous scorer, pumping in over 22 ppg on almost 50% shooting, including 41% from 3-point range. Gordon should be able to score 15 ppg right off the bat at the NBA level. Gordon has great athletiscm and a great shooting stroke, but is going to rank a little lower due to his size. He's listed at 6'5" which is fine, but the prototype NBA shooting guard is 6'6" to 6'7" (or 6'9" in Coach Carlesimo's mind). He might struggle to find a NBA position, much like Jeff Green.

Sonics Perspective: Gordon would fill a need of sorts for the Sonics, and hopefully force Kevin Durant to play the small forward position. On a team so devoid of offense, Gordon's shooting ability would be a tremendous boon, both opening up the court and adding points to the scoreboard. Gordon's only question is size, as he's answered everything else. Scouts don't believe he can transition to point guard (a la Gilbert Arenas or Dwyane Wade), so he'll be stuck as an undersized '2'. Ray Allen made it work with elite shooting ability. Can Gordon?

5. OJ Mayo 6-4, 195 Freshman. Shooting Guard
Everyone knows Mayo's name; he's been the next LeBron for 5 years now. Mayo finally made it to college, and has been pretty good. He's average almost 20 ppg with 4 rebound and 3 assists on 45% shooting. For any other player, that would be enough, but for a player with Mayo's hype, it's seen as a bit of a disappointment. However, don't be fooled. Mayo is still a tremendous talent and has a great shot at being an All-Star down the line.

Sonics Perspective: Mayo's unquestionable talent aside, there are huge character concerns. Whether its because of the spotlight or not, Mayo is in the news alot for reasons that aren't usually good. He was ejected from his last high school game for punting a ball into the stands. He had a bizarre recruitment which ended with Mayo essentially calling USC coach Tim Floyd and telling him that he was coming. Floyd hadn't been recruiting Mayo at that point. Just this last week, Mayo got into hot water for accepting tickets to a Denver Nugget's game courtesoy of Carmelo Anthony. Mayo is talented and might actually be underrated due to his 'disappointing' year. Just don't expect the Sonics and GM Sam Presti to draft him.

6. Donte Greene 6-8, 215 Freshman. Small Forward.
Greene has rocketed up the draft charts this season with his great play for the Orange of Syracuse. He is averaging almost 18 and 8, while shooting 38% from 3-point range and adding 2 blocks per game for good measure. Greene has actually improved upon his high school numbers (how often does that happen) indicating he is either improving at an incredible rate, or was that bored by his high school competition. He has way more upside than the Green that the Sonics took last year.

Sonics Perspective: Greene is one of the high risers in the draft, could jump even higher as the season continues. However, due to the glut of small fowards on their roster, if the Sonics take Greene, you either have to question the front office's sanity or take it as an acknowledgement that the front office whiffed on the Jeff Green pick last year. I don't Greene will end up with the Sonic's but his talent is impressive. He might be the 3rd best player in the draft.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on this breakdown, I think the Sonics draft board looks something like this:
1) Micheal Beasley
2) Derrick Rose
3) Eric Gordon
4) Donte Greene
5) DeAndre Jordan
6) OJ Mayo

I think the Sonics will be hoping for a top-2 pick, as both options would fill an immediate need and are enormously talented. Gordon and Greene are both talented players, but aren't natural fits for the Sonics. Jordan is very talented, but I think (hope?) the Sonics have a faster timeline for success then waiting for 5 years for Jordan to develop. And Mayo is just too much of a character risk.

All that said, I'd kill just to see this losing streak end. This is painful.

Sonic Streak: 11 Games (Houston Rockets 96 Seattle 89)

Advantage: Houston. The streak reached 11 games as the Rockets took the first game of a 'doubleheader' on a rare weekday afternoon game to commemerate Martin Luther King day. Though the Sonics lost, they were competitive, keeping the game close to the end (down four with about 2 minutes remaining), and hopefully setting the tone for the rematch in 2 days at home. Yao Ming was the difference-maker for Houston, scoring 30 points and pulling down 17 rebounds against an overmatched Sonics frontline. Really who can match up with Yao? Kurt Thomas is crafty, but Thomas, Collison and Wilcox are undersized against normal centers, let alone 7'6" giants like Yao.

Signs of Progress: Earl Watson had a good game scoring 9 points on 4-8 shooting and dished 9 assists in only of 25 minutes of play. He also played excellent defense on Rafer Alston , helping force him into a 5-17 night shooting the ball. Jeff Green was extremely agressive, leading the Sonics in both attempts and points, with 15 points on 7-17 shooting (the 17 shots were a season high for Green). On a team so devoid of offense, the skilled players (Szczerbiak, Green, Robert Swift) need to shoot. Alright, I threw Robert Swift in there just to make sure you were paying attention. Wally had a somewhat slow night, but still added 15 points on 7-16 shooting. The Sonics managed to stay in the game for 48 minutes, as opposed to less than a quarter vs. the Hornets and Mavericks.

Still needs work: The Sonics don't have a shotblocking presencse, but it would be nice to not be outblocked every game. The Rockets swatted 10 shots to the Sonics 3. The Rockets were steady with the ball with only 10 turnovers. Durant struggled again shooting just 4-13, and settling for tough shots. I'm afraid his confidence is just going to shatter at some point. Chris Wilcox is still slowed after his injury and continues to play poorly in limited minutes.

Verdict: For the first time since the Lakers game, and only the second time in 2008, the Sonics appeared to have a pulse. Next Wednesday will bring the first win of the year back home in Seattle. Book it.

Sonic Streak: 10 Games (Dallas Mavericks 111 - Seattle Supersonics 96

The Sonics lost again last night, pushing the losing streak to 10 games (now that the streak has reached double digits, I'm going to grant it italicized status). I (and every Sonics fan) had hoped that by this point in the season we would be referring to a streak of Kevin Durant 30 point games, or Earl Watson 10 assist games, but instead we're being treated to a ten game losing streak as a winless January becomes increasingly possible. Last night's 111-96 loss to the Maverick's certainly did nothing to brighten the mood.

Dallas controlled the game from the opening tap, opening up a 33-24 lead in the first quarter and 66-44 at the half. The Sonics' halfhearted rally fell well short, and the game ended as a 16 point Maverick victory. Wally Szczerbiak continued his strong play, scoring 26 point on 9-15 shooting (sound familiar?). Oddly, Wally did a lot of work at the charity stripe, going 8-8 from the line, while only taking (and missing) two 3-pointers. Szczerbiak has increased his scoring average every month of the season, and is certainly the most consistent option on offense considering Durant's up and down season. Nick Collison had another strong game contributing 16 points and 12 rebounds. Collison's 16 point night was his 3rd highest offensive output of both the season and the month. January has marked a significant increase in production for the power forward, with Collison totaling 24, 18, 16 and 15 points during the losing stretch. Collison's play in spite of the losing streak and tough season echo one of my beliefs of looking at the college player's who come from the winning programs (Collison went to KU). I'm a big stat guy, but I also believe there is something to be said for knowing how to win. Playing like the game matters, even when it doesn't prepares to succeed when it does matter. FYI, Collison's PER is 16.09 this season, a career high.

I have deja vu writing these posts, as I always try to accenuate the positives, noting who played well, and spending less time on who played poorly (ideally anyway). I follow college sports intently (I am from Oklahoma after all), and I don't believe in ripping athletes just because they go about their jobs in a very public arena. But after watching the same players have little or no positive impact on the game over and over again, it's hard not to point it out. The Sonics have gotten nothing out of the point guard position this year. I had high hopes for Delonte West, but his minutes seem to yo-yo and he can't stay healthy enough to build up any momentum. Earl Watson is the lesser of 3 evils, but on a team that is playing so poorly on the offensive end, the offensively challenged point guard has to be viewed critically. Luke Ridnour is shooting under 40% on the season (the Earl Watson line), and also has trouble staying healthy. Damien Wilkins has completely squandered his strong start, regressing to a level where it wouldn't be noticed if he dropped off of the roster entirely. Chris Wilcox's production dropped off after a great start, and now he's trying to get back into the flow after injury. 1-2 of these guys are going to have to turn their season around for the Sonics to pull out of this tailspin.

I omitted Kurt Thomas, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green from the players listed above for different reasons. Thomas is still playing pretty well, and doesn't deserve any criticism. He's not in the Sonic's long term plans anyway given his age. Jeff Green was having a pretty darn good rookie year until January. At some point, Coach Carlesimo moved Green to the perimeter, when in actuality he's a 3/4 tweener. He still needs some time on the inside, but since Kurt Thomas has come back there have been less minutes available inside. Consequently, his rebounding and shooting % have plummeted from his first two months. Green needs to get more minutes in the post to regain some of his confidence. Durant is just confusing. He's taking much longer than anyone anticipated to adjust to the NBA game, and by adjust, I mean show any signs of tangible improvement. Durant's offensive output has slightly declined in each month of the season, to the point that he is shooting just 38% from the field in January, pulling his season fg% to .399 (aka below the Earl Watson line). It will take a whole post to summarize my feelings on Durant, but to start with I think he needs to be shifted to the Small Forward position. I know Coach Carlemsimo thinks he's a shooting guard, but he's not. He's a small forward. Eventually you have to hope that these things become so obvious that everyone knows a change has to be made, and the change is made. I guess we aren't that point yet.

Sometimes, they have your number: Memphis 124 - Seattle 100

Memphis stinks. The Grizzlies are 11-28 on the year, and are in last place in the Southwest division. But for whatever reason, the Grizzlies just have the Sonics down, having beaten them in all 3 matchups this year. Each loss has been progressively worse, as the Sonics have lost by 7, 18 and tonight 24 points. If you take out the 3 games the Grizzlies have beaten the Sonics in, their record falls to 8-28: that's actually worse than the Sonics.

Tonight's loss, Seattle's 9th straight, was a microcosm of the entire losing streak. It played out almost identically to the rest of their losses, with Durant and Szczerbiak leading the team in scoring with 22 and 19 respectively, and Wilcox and Collison chipping in 13 and 12 apiece. No one else provided any significant output. In fact three of the starters, Jeff Green, Kurt Thomas and Earl Watson combined for 10 points in over 60 minutes of court time. That's not good enough, and isn't going to be good enough 9 times out of 10 in the NBA.

More thoughts tomorrow before/after the Sonics play the Mavericks.

2008 Blues...Winless in Seattle

As I'm back to consistently posting, now seems as good a time as any to reflect on the Sonics' troubles in the month as January. The symptoms are obvious. The Sonics are 0-7 for the month, losing by an average of 14.4 ppg. How bad have they been? The worst team in the league, with the corresponding worst point differential (the Minnesota Timberwolves), are actually 5 ppg better on the season. The numbers are staggering: losing by 18 @ Phoenix, by 22 @ Washington, by 20 vs. Dallas, and the 31 point debacle @ New Orleans last night.

So what's the problem? Offense. The defense has remained stunningly consistent over the course of the season allowing ~ 104 ppg allowed in every month. But the offense has fallen off a cliff, as the Sonics are barely averging 90 ppg in 2008. After shooting 44% as a team through the first 2 months of the season, the Sonics are struggling to crack 40% as a team (should we call the Earl Watson line?) Who are the chief offenders? It's easier to just single out who's shooting well. Szczerbiak, Collison, Thomas, and Chris Wilcox are all over 50%, i.e. the best shooter on the team and three interior players who get half of their points off of put-backs. Not that playing inside is an automatic pass to a high shooting percentage; Johan Petro is stuggling to crack the Watson line at 40.5%. Everyone else on the team, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER, is shooting under 40%. Four players are somehow shooting under 30%, which is almost unthinkable for a NBA caliber player for any reasonable sample size (and 7 games is getting close to 10% of a season). Delonte West shoots the ball 7 times a game and makes 25% of his shots. That's not good.

What has to change? I don't know. Durant is actually playing pretty well, aside from the 6-26 abomination vs. the Lakers (probably costing the Sonics their only win this year). Collison and Szczerbiak have both been very good. Szczerbiak just needs more minutes (and shots...he needs about 15 shots per game, he's only shooting the ball 10 times per game right now), and Collison is playing at the highest level of his career by posting a double-double for 2008. I'm not going to kill Jeff Green for falling into a rookie funk, and Wilcox has been injured and only played in 3 games with limited minutes. On the flipside, the Watson/Ridnour/West triumverate continues to disappoint making fixing the point guard position priority #1 in the off-season. Damien Wilkins apparently thought the season ended in mid-December...he's averaging 3 ppg in January. Johan Petro has been roughly twice as good as him. I can't put it in any stronger terms than that.

What comes next? More losses in all likelihood. The Sonics have a very winnable game vs. Memphis on Friday, but follow that with an unwinnable game @ Dallas and then 2 straight vs. Houston. Yao Ming will probably score about 80 points alone in those two games. It would be surprising for the Sonics to win 2 games in this stretch if they were playing well...at this point we all need to cross our fingers and hope they can surprise Memphis tomorrow. If they can't win one of these four...you're going to start reading a lot of columns about the draft.

Sonics vs. Hornets: It's an Oklahoma Lovefest!

Watching Oklahoma's once (the Hornets) and future (the Sonics) teams face off in New Orleans was a strange experience, especially as Seattle was never in the game. The Hornets jumped out to an immediate lead, outscoring the Sonics 30-18 in the first quarter, and pushing the lead to 19 at halftime. The Sonics tried to crawl back in the game, cutting the lead to 10 in the middle of the 3rd quarter, but their momentum quickly evaporated, and the Hornets cruised to a dominating 31 point win. Losing to the Hornets wasn't a surprise, after all, they are one of the best teams in the West (as long as everyone stays healthy; I'm looking at you Peja). It was disheartening to be so badly outplayed, especially coming off of a painful loss to the Lakers. This was the Sonics 8th straight loss, and their 7th of 2008. We're barely halfway through January.

Tyson Chandler continued to make the Hornet's look like geniuses for stealing him from Chicago by scoring 14 points and ripping down 21 rebounds. 21! Chandler has almost no offensive game, living off of putbacks and Chris Paul passes for layups, but his unbelievable athleticism allows him to convert a great % of shots (he was 7-9 on the night). Basically, 'Blackjack' Chandler is everything Seattle wishes Chris Wilcox could be, though Wilcox isn't and won't ever be anywhere near the rebounder that Chandler is. Watching Chandler dominate the glass, makes you wish Wilcox could just give consistent double digit rebounds.

What went right? Almost nothing. The Sonics outshot the Hornets from the free throw line, and equaled their blistering 55% shooting from three-point land, but were outplayed in every other statistical area. ALL of them. Earl Watson had his best game of the season, scoring 17 points and matching his season high in assists with 11, breaking out of a 5-game slump. Kevin Durant rebounded from his nightmare outing vs. the Lakers (6-26 shooting...Allen Iverson circa 1999 would even be embarrassed with that performance) by scoring 20 points on efficient 60% shooting. He also stuffed the stat sheet with 7 rebounds and 6 assists, albeit in a meaningless game. Wally kept up his strong play with 14 points. Coach Carlesimo narrowly avoided an aneurysm. That sums up the positives.

What can this team do? When will the next win come? They play a very winnable game against a Memphis team which has seemingly had Seattle's number this year on Friday, and follow that up with a game vs. the Maverick's on Saturday. I think it's safe to say that the Sonics aren't going to beat Dallas playing their second game in 2 nights, but they will then get to play 2 consecutive games against Houston in a scheduling quirk (1 home, 1 away). If the Sonics can't put away a bad Memphis team, they should be able to steal 1 of 2 vs. Houston. I hope.

Long time, No post: What I missed in December

So it's been 6 weeks since I posted here, but I think I actually have a pretty good excuse. After graduation, marriage, the holiday season and starting a new job, I had a pretty action packed December, but now I'm back and ready to go. Before catching up to the present month (which hasn't been pretty: the Sonics are 0-6), I'll look back at December, which was a pretty good month for the Sonics. They went 6-8 with wins against Minnesota(x2), Milwaukee, LA Clippers, New York, and Toronto. Now only one of those teams isn't currently in last place in their division (Toronto, a playoff team), but the first step to becoming a good team is beating the bad teams.

So the record was better, which is a tangible sign of improvement. But as far as the secondary signs of improvement...those were not in abundance. The Sonics averaged 97.1 ppg in December, down from 98.8 ppg in November. Which is probably attributable to the Sonics playing at a slower pace (they've fallen to the 6th fastest pace in the league for the season after being #1 in the league earlier in the year), but at the same time, the Sonics allowed the exact same number of points in November and December: 104.2 ppg. So despite playing at a slower pace, Seattle's point differential got worse.

From an individual standpoint, Wally Szczerbiak really broke out in December averaging 14.6 ppg in 26.0 mpg. Wally was a consistent scoring force, getting to double digits in all but two games for the month. He was as deadly as ever from beyond the arc, dialing in at over %40, and making almost 2 three-pointers/game. Kevin Durant was surprisingly consistent, but suffered small dips almost across the board (minutes, points, fg%, steals, rebounds...you get the point). That's not to say he isn't getting better, but we're all still waiting for him to really break out.

After strong starts, Chris Wilcox and Damien Wilkins both cooled in December, with Wilcox's scoring decreasing from to 15.4 ppg to 11.5 ppg. Wilkins' fall has been even more precipitous, falling from 14.0 ppg to 7.4 ppg. Wilkin's fall is at least in part due to Wally's big month, but his production has really fallen off.

Knowing what we know now, (i.e. the 0-6 start to January), it's clear that the big improvement in record for December was masking the lack of actual improvement in the Sonics...a lack of improvement that they are now paying the price for.