This isn't a shot at Russell Westbrook. His physical talents are apparent. He has jaw-dropping athleticism, can go around any defender at any time and get to the basket at will. He shows great potential as a drive and kick point guard (which would be better if the Thunder had a single shooter on the team). Unlike Jeff Green, I haven't had to wonder if he has 'it'. Westbrook has it. It will be years before we know if he develops it and becomes the player the Thunder need him to be, but the pick can be justified.
However, the Thunder were unfortunate, because the player they really needed went one spot earlier. The Thunder have no one who can space the floor and hit open shots. The Thunder have no one who can consistently score to take the pressure off of Durant. The Thunder need a shooting guard to slide Durant to his natural position. The Thunder needed OJ Mayo.
10 games in, he's averaging 21 ppg on 45% shooting and including 40% from 3-point range. And he's still getting better: after averaging 14 ppg in his first 4 games, he's averaged over 25 ppg in his last six. He wasn't necessarily the safest pick, but 10 games in, he has already realized a great deal of his potential.
This obviously isn't the Thunder's fault. They can't control how the ping-pong balls bounce. And there is no telling who they would have selected if they had received the third pick...given Mayo's history, it might have been an unlikely pick. So maybe the Thunder are lucky after all...this way no one can second guess them.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Victory: VOKC Day
Thunder 88 - Timberwolves 85. Ahh...that's better. The Thunder secured their first victory, fighting back and then holding on to give the home crowd much needed satisfaction. The Timberwolves were seemingly in control for the first three quarters, allowing the Thunder to take the lead only once, before being held to just 12 points in the final quarter.
Kevin Durant led the way with 18 points, as 5 Thunder players (Thunderites?) scored in double figures. Russell Westbrook set a career high with 14 points, and numerous big plays in the second half. With the team in a close game for the first time, PJ unleashed his crunch time lineup for the final four minutes: Durant, Westbrook, Jeff Green, Earl Watson and Nick Collison. Aside from Watson, there was little to argue with, though Green continued to show he's not ready for prime time by missing two huge free throws with 7 seconds left. With renewed life, the Timberwolves had a chance to send the game to overtime leading to Ryan Gomes missed 3-pointer at the buzzer.
Westbrook continues to add a different dimension to the Thunder offense. While he remains a poor distributor, he is the only 'slasher' on the team, and the offense can easily become stagnant if they aren't hitting their shots when he isn't on the floor. Carlesimo threw a new look tonight, allowing Westbrook and Watson to play together, which also shifts Durant and Green to their more natural positions of small forward and power forward respectively (though Green is a tweener in the truest sense of the word).
Westbrook has already managed to do in three games, what Green still has failed to do: He's shown that he's a keeper. Even if Westbrook never develops a jump shot (and I'm not overly hopeful). I don't have a tremendous problem with Watson continuing to start and splitting minutes with Westbrook even though Westbrook is clearly the future. The team isn't going to win either way, so let Westbrook develop at his own pace. He doesn't need to develop bad habits in this transition period, so I don't agree with just throwing him out there to 'figure it out'.
The team is now 1-2 and gets 2 days off before Wednesday night's game with the defending champion Boston Celtics.
Preview: Thunder vs. Timberwolves
The Thunder's quest for the first win in franchise history continues tonight against a division rival, the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1). Both teams are in the second night of a back-to-back with the Timberwolves hitting the road after a home loss to Dallas on Saturday. The Timberwolves were one of the few teams that the Thunder/Sonics had significant success against last year going 3-1 in their 4 matchups. While the two teams have very different strengths, in many respects they are coming from the same place. Both teams are attempting to stockpile young talent and build around their young stars, Jefferson and Durant. Both have had a number of high first round picks over the past few years and have recently started to take character into account (see: Green, Westbrook, Love - acquired by trading OJ Mayo). The Thunder are building around their backcourt (Durant and Westbrook), while the Timberwolves are building through the frontcourt (Jefferson and Kevin Love). In one respect, the Timberwolves are ahead of the Thunder, as they have built a nice stockpile of talent in the wings with Rashad McCants, Randy Foye and Corey Brewer, while the Thunder's frontcourt is comparatively thin. At the same time, the Thunder have identified their point guard of the future, while the position is a blackhole for the Timberwolves.
Best Player: Al Jefferson. Jefferson, now in his fifth year out of high school emerged over the last two years as one of the best young post players in the league. Despite not having the freak athleticism of other young frontcourt all-stars (Amare Stoudamire and Dwight Howard spring to mind), Jefferson's size, footwork and strong hands allow him to put up great numbers. After stalling his sophomore campaign, Jefferson made huge leaps each of the last two years, and is unquestionably the man in Minnesota. As a 22 year-old, he had a 22+ PER, which points to a decade of elite level production from the big man for the Timberwolves. While the Kevin Garnett trade unquestionably worked out for Celtics, in 5 years, when that championship is a memory, the Timberwolves will still have an elite big man in the prime of his career.
Best Matchup: Chris Wilcox vs. Al Jefferson. While Jefferson has had his typical strong numbers when playing the Thunder/Sonics, Chris Wilcox has had a lot of success against the Timberwolves, averaging almost 18 points and 11 rebounds in four games last year. If Wilcox can provide a solid second option, the Thunder's chances of winning dramatically increase.
Hidden Stat: Despite losing 3 of 4 to the Thunder/Sonics last year, the Timberwolves ended the season with 2 more wins. This is backed up their two point edge in point differential, ending at -6.8 ppg compared to the Thunder's -8.8, which ranked last in the league.
Prediction: Coming off two disappointing loses, the Thunder come home and reward the fans with their first win in Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant leads the way with 24 points in a 91-84 win.
Best Player: Al Jefferson. Jefferson, now in his fifth year out of high school emerged over the last two years as one of the best young post players in the league. Despite not having the freak athleticism of other young frontcourt all-stars (Amare Stoudamire and Dwight Howard spring to mind), Jefferson's size, footwork and strong hands allow him to put up great numbers. After stalling his sophomore campaign, Jefferson made huge leaps each of the last two years, and is unquestionably the man in Minnesota. As a 22 year-old, he had a 22+ PER, which points to a decade of elite level production from the big man for the Timberwolves. While the Kevin Garnett trade unquestionably worked out for Celtics, in 5 years, when that championship is a memory, the Timberwolves will still have an elite big man in the prime of his career.
Best Matchup: Chris Wilcox vs. Al Jefferson. While Jefferson has had his typical strong numbers when playing the Thunder/Sonics, Chris Wilcox has had a lot of success against the Timberwolves, averaging almost 18 points and 11 rebounds in four games last year. If Wilcox can provide a solid second option, the Thunder's chances of winning dramatically increase.
Hidden Stat: Despite losing 3 of 4 to the Thunder/Sonics last year, the Timberwolves ended the season with 2 more wins. This is backed up their two point edge in point differential, ending at -6.8 ppg compared to the Thunder's -8.8, which ranked last in the league.
Prediction: Coming off two disappointing loses, the Thunder come home and reward the fans with their first win in Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant leads the way with 24 points in a 91-84 win.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Rocket Failure: Houston Rockets 89 - Oklahoma City Thunder 77
After hanging tough for the first half, the Thunder couldn't quite keep up with the Rockets, falling 89-77. The Rockets slowly built their lead throughout the 2nd half, stretching the lead to as much as 16, before settling on the final 12-point margin. Kevin Durant bounced back in a big way with 26 points on 11-20 shooting, and added 5 rebounds and 4 steals. The majority of his damage on mid-range jumpers. Durant shot only 4 free-throws and didn't attempt a 3-pointer. Despite the lack of variety in his offensive game, it was an excellent performance, especially in the first half, where he kept the team in the game almost single-handedly.
The Thunder held the Rockets to 36% shooting from the floor, but the Rockets countered with a significant advantage in free throws (31 attempts compared to just 12 for the Thunder). The Rockets also had a 49-39 edge in rebounding.
While Durant came to play, the rest of the team apparently decided to take the night off. Chris Wilcox continued his struggles against the Rockets, with 2 points and 2 rebounds on 1-6 shooting in 19 low (or perhaps negative) impact negatives. With no one besides Durant providing a consistent threat, Johan Petro and Earl Watson attempted to step up launching a combined 24 shots. Remember the previous post discussing how the Rockets route their offense through their two best players? This was pretty much the exact opposite of that. Watson can be excused, as the Rocket's defense forced many shots late in the shot clock, adding many low-percentage looks to his night. Petro on the other hand should not take 12 shots in any game under any circumstances.
Game Notes: Russell Westbrook's numbers didn't stand out with 6 points in 19 minutes. The one thing Westbrook does bring however is offensive variety. Westbrook is able to get to the rim and his athleticism adds a dimension that Watson lacks... The Thunder again avoided the 3-point line, missing all four attempts... Joe Smith 8 points on efficient 4-6 shooting in 21 minutes. However Smith had two crucial traveling infractions in the 3rd quarter while the Rockets began to pull away... Carlesimo played nine players with Wilcox, Mason, Westbrook and Smith coming off the bench. Stathead All-Star Carl Landry had a strong game with 16 points and 11 rebounds in 28 minutes.
Thunder Preview: Houston Rockets
The Thunder get back in action today with a 7:00 pm bout with the Houston Rockets (2-0). The Rockets have opened the season strong with two wins over Western Conference opponents: The Dallas Mavericks and the Memphis Grizzlies. While neither are expected to be among the NBA elite this season, the Rockets have had little trouble integrating the enigmatic Ron Artest into their lineup. Yao Ming remains the focal point of the offense, but Tracy McGrady seems happy to take a step back and let Artest find his footing. Artest is averaging 22.5 ppg for the refueled Rockets.
Best Player: Yao Ming. When healthy (which is less than 60 games a year), Yao is still a unique force in the NBA. He has a size advantage over every player, but it's Yao high skill level and high basketball IQ which allow him to stand alone among NBA centers. Yao will find the going even easier when matched up against Nick Collison, one of the more undersized centers in the NBA. Collison is slightly undersized for a power forward, let alone matching up with Yao. Johan Petro can't expect to neutralize Yao, but physical play will help limit his effectiveness.
Best Matchup: The Rocket's peremiter defenders vs. Kevin Durant. Fresh off a subpar opening night performance, Durant gets to follow up with two of the best defenders in NBA in Ron Artest and Shane Battier. Coach Rick Adelman will likely let Artest and Battier rotate on Durant with McGrady taking his turn occasionally as well.
Hidden Stat: Statheads love the Rockets. GM Daryl Morey is the foremost proponent of statistical analysis in NBA management, and stat-friendly media members like John Hollinger have been routinely projecting the Rockets to be better than their past results would indicate. The emphasis on statistical analysis in evaluating talent carries over to the court, where in order to increase offensive effiency, the Rockets have routed their offense through their two best players McGrady and Yao. While this is perfectly logical, the Rockets take to further extremes than any other team, with McGrady and Yao ranking near the top of the league in Usage rate. Last year the Rockets were able to shut down Chris Wilcox, who averaged just 4.5 ppg on 27% shooting in two appearances vs. the Rockets.
Prediction: The Rockets are efficient on offense and excellent on defense. They have had no problems integrating Ron Artest and are at home. At this point, the Thunder are no match for them. Expect the Rockets to roll 104 - 85.
Best Player: Yao Ming. When healthy (which is less than 60 games a year), Yao is still a unique force in the NBA. He has a size advantage over every player, but it's Yao high skill level and high basketball IQ which allow him to stand alone among NBA centers. Yao will find the going even easier when matched up against Nick Collison, one of the more undersized centers in the NBA. Collison is slightly undersized for a power forward, let alone matching up with Yao. Johan Petro can't expect to neutralize Yao, but physical play will help limit his effectiveness.
Best Matchup: The Rocket's peremiter defenders vs. Kevin Durant. Fresh off a subpar opening night performance, Durant gets to follow up with two of the best defenders in NBA in Ron Artest and Shane Battier. Coach Rick Adelman will likely let Artest and Battier rotate on Durant with McGrady taking his turn occasionally as well.
Hidden Stat: Statheads love the Rockets. GM Daryl Morey is the foremost proponent of statistical analysis in NBA management, and stat-friendly media members like John Hollinger have been routinely projecting the Rockets to be better than their past results would indicate. The emphasis on statistical analysis in evaluating talent carries over to the court, where in order to increase offensive effiency, the Rockets have routed their offense through their two best players McGrady and Yao. While this is perfectly logical, the Rockets take to further extremes than any other team, with McGrady and Yao ranking near the top of the league in Usage rate. Last year the Rockets were able to shut down Chris Wilcox, who averaged just 4.5 ppg on 27% shooting in two appearances vs. the Rockets.
Prediction: The Rockets are efficient on offense and excellent on defense. They have had no problems integrating Ron Artest and are at home. At this point, the Thunder are no match for them. Expect the Rockets to roll 104 - 85.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Start of an era
The Oklahoma City Thunder's first game went without a bang. This will go down as a great day for Oklahoma, and the Thunder organization, but it wasn't a great day of basketball. A Milwaukee Bucks team that has looked atrocious both in the preseason and in their loss to the Chicago Bulls one day earlier had their way with the Thunder for 3 quarters, until Carlesimo found a group willing to make a run (led by Joe Smith, Russell Westbrook, and Desmond Mason). Fighting, clawing and making stops, the Thunder fought back into the game, and the crowd came alive. You could taste a fairytale ending. But after cutting the 20+ point deficit to 11, Smith and Mason turned the ball over due to bad communication and Mason missed a layup to cut it to single digits and that was that. The Bucks pulled away for a 98-87 win over the OKC Thunder in their NBA debut.
While this won't be the only loss the Thunder experience this season, it probably served as a shock to the home crowd who likely felt they could will any team to a win. They had first-hand experience afterall, seemingly willing a below-average Hornets team into the playoff race three years ago. The problems that plagued the Thunder tonight are ones that plagued the Supersonics last year: An inefficient offense that has trouble scoring, and a young team that just hasn't had to time to meld together. This team is going to be good, as GM Sam Presti is going to keep on building his roster with the right players. With a wealth of draft picks (including what's likely to be a very high one of their own), the Thunder will have the ability to add another front-line talent to join Durant and Westbrook. I can tell you that alot of fans would be ecstatic to add Oklahoma's Blake Griffen to the mix next year. This team isn't built for 2008, its being built for a playoff run in 2010. They'll make it. Just give them time.
Some observations:
While this won't be the only loss the Thunder experience this season, it probably served as a shock to the home crowd who likely felt they could will any team to a win. They had first-hand experience afterall, seemingly willing a below-average Hornets team into the playoff race three years ago. The problems that plagued the Thunder tonight are ones that plagued the Supersonics last year: An inefficient offense that has trouble scoring, and a young team that just hasn't had to time to meld together. This team is going to be good, as GM Sam Presti is going to keep on building his roster with the right players. With a wealth of draft picks (including what's likely to be a very high one of their own), the Thunder will have the ability to add another front-line talent to join Durant and Westbrook. I can tell you that alot of fans would be ecstatic to add Oklahoma's Blake Griffen to the mix next year. This team isn't built for 2008, its being built for a playoff run in 2010. They'll make it. Just give them time.
Some observations:
- Russell Westbrook is for real. He has absolutely lightening quickness and made Tyronn Lue (no slouch in the speed department) look silly a couple of time in the 4th quarter. He has a great handle, and is going to be able to get to the rim at will. I doubt that he'll ever have a great jumper, but he can be an elite point guard in the NBA.
- Jeff Green needs to come off the bench. I understand that the team wants to develop Green, who was the centerpiece of the Ray Allen trade (heck he might be the ONLY remaining piece), but he just doesn't bring anything to the table at this point. Green is a pure tweener, he doesn't have the perimeter skills or shooting ability of a small forward, and doesn't have the size of a starting power forward. He's best served to play on the second unit and maybe develop into a really solid 6th man. But when talking about the future, I don't think Green warrants mentioning as a future cornerstone. It's Durant and Westbrook for now. Moreover, Green needs to vacate the small forward spot for...
- Kevin Durant. As I've discussed before, Durant is a small forward. Carlesimo can keep playing him at the shooting guard slot all he likes, but Durant simply isn't a fit. Defensively, he has neither the quickness to keep up with the opposing guards, nor the strength to fight around picks. Offensively, he can shoot over the smaller guards, but he hasn't demonstrated good enough shooting ability to actually make this a worthwhile advantage. Durant has the moves to get around defenders, let him take the big boys off the dribble. As far as tonight, when he wasn't been abused defensively, Durant demonstrated a nice mid-range game that wasn't necessarily pretty, but he's got a shot he can get anytime he wants now. He's clearly been working on it
- Much as Kurt Thomas was last year, Joe Smith and Desmond Mason will be the veteran anchors. They keyed the Thunder's comeback in the 4th quarter and Mason electrified the crowd on a fastbreak dunk (beautifully orchestrated by Earl Watson). I'm happy to have them on the team.
- Chris Wilcox had another standard Chris Wilcox game. I'm sure he drives management crazy. He has the truly rare athletic skills for a big man, but inconsistent effort has plagued him for years. I'll put it this way. He had 15 points and 7 boards in just 27 minutes and I wasn't complaining when P.J. took him out. He'll be gone the instant his contract is up. No fouls in 27 minutes by the way. It's okay to foul sometimes Chris.
- The Thunder only shot 6 three-pointers, which is actually great news. This team doesn't have a single deep threat (Durant has the potential, but hasn't developed it yet), and can easily shoot themselves out of games. Watching the teams three-point attempts as the year continues will give a barometer of Carlesimo's control over the team.
- Johan Petro isn't the answer in the middle. I know this comes as no surprise to anybody who watched the the Sonics last year, but he just looks the part. Statistically Petro hasn't improved at ALL in his 3+ years in the league. That said, given the post options for the Thunder, he's going to get his 20 minutes a game.
- Oklahoma City packed the house with 19136 new Thunder fans for the franchises first (of many) sellout. They didn't get chance to live up to the loud city rep tonight, but its coming.
- I really wish they wouldn't play YMCA over the PA. Does this crap happen at other NBA arenas? Maybe Salt Lake City?
Thunderstruck.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Orlando Summer League: Game 1 OKC
First off, we're going to need a name to call the new team, until the OKC Thunder is shoved down our unwilling throats. For now I'm going with the OKC _____ (pronounced OKC Blank in conversation with friends). I'm open to suggestions.
Note to Clay Bennet: the OKC Thunder is a terrible name. Don't do it. I don't have anything better, but if I was forced I would go with OKC Team Stealers, or OKC Hicks. Either is better than Thunder. In fact I should probably stop capatalizing it. OKC thunder. See? It even looks stupid in print.
So for the moment, we're going with the OKC Blank. The Blanks had their first summer league game in the Orlando Pro Summer League. For those that don't closely follow the NBA, each summer there are a few Summer leagues which teams can elect to play in. Usually there is one is Orlando, Salt Lake City and Vegas, as well as a few others. These are for teams to evaluate their draft picks and players trying to make the team as undrafted free agents. For instance, take a look at the OKC Blank's summer league roster:
22 Jeff Green F
3 D.J. White F
30 Justin Williams
2 Devin Green G
0 Russell Westbrook G
8 Ndudi Ebi
23 Ronell Taylor
44 Nick Lewis
12 Rhonald Dupree
5 Mykal Riley
11 Aaron Bruce
50 DeVon Hardin
42 Brian Randel
Not exactly the 1986 Boston Celtics. Heck, that's not even the 1973 Sixers (season record: 9-73). But they are the first team to represent OKC and OKC only as a pro franchise at the highest level (sort of). The standouts on the team are obviously 4th overall pick Russell Westbrook and last year's number 6 pick Jeff Green. The main idea is for the team to play their rookies and young players as much as possible and try to give them valuable experience as well as evaluate the lesser players who the franchise hasn't invested as much in yet. Hence, the large number of guys with little chance of making the team. Just a guess, but I don't think Aaron Bruce will be with the OKC Blank when the season kicks off this fall.
So how'd they do? The Blank lost their inagural summer league game 95-78 to the Indiana Pacers. Green and Westbrook led the way for the Blank with 21 and 18 points respectively. The difference is that Green had an ugly 6-16 night shooting, while Westbrook was a much more efficient 7-13 with 5 assists and only 1 turnover. Overall, it was an excellent debut, especially when compared to the 10 point, 5 turnover outing by 1st overall pick Derrick Rose in another summer league game. D.J. White had 8 points and 4 rebounds and 5 fouls (get ready to see that stat line ALOT this year) in 26 minutes of action.
Based off of tonight, I'm not expecting the Blank to be too impressive in Summer League action. With Durant sitting out these games, the team looks woefully outclassed, and were easily beated by a relatively unimpressive Indiana team that was playing without its too first round picks. Maybe we needed Serge Ibaka after all.
I have to say, that Jersey looks really beautiful on Westbrook though. Something about the lettering.
Go Blank!WE GOT ONE.
I was three paragraphs into this post, but I think that the title says it all. Welcome to the heartland, boys.
Monday, February 18, 2008
At the Break: Adjusted +/- ratings for the 2007-2008 Seattle Supersonics
With the season 'half' over (the Sonics have actually played 51 of 82 games), it's a natural time to step back and look at who is contributing the most to the team. According to PER, which is one of the premier statistics available to the masses (and as frequent readers know, the statistic I reference most), the Sonic's best player has easily been Chris Wilcox who is posting a PER of 17.35, which ranks 67th overall in the NBA. Four Sonics cluster together next, with Kurt Thomas, Wally Szczerbiak, Nick Collison and Kevin Durant all with a PER between 15 and 16. Everyone else on the team has a PER below 15. Since 15 is the league average, that means only 5 players on the Sonics are above average. Presumably, a good team either have a greater percentage of above average players, or who's best players would have significantly higher PERs. The Sonics, of course, do not qualify as a good team.
Thus far, the Sonics are 13-38, and are being outscored by an average of 7.3 points per game. Suppose we want a stat that's more directly tied to how many points the each given player is producing? That's were the adjusted +/- statistic comes in. It's computed by simply subtracting the number of points allowed by the team from the number of points scored by the team while any particular player is on the floor. Then the number is scaled to account for the effect of the teammates on the floor at the time (since a player is likely to look better when Lebron James is on the floor, then when his backup is in), and scaled for 100 possesions per game. Basketballvalue.com has taken it upone themselves to keep updated adjusted +/- statistics, which I'll be borrowing here. The leader at midseason for the Sonics? Mr. Kurt Thomas, who stands at +11.22 ppg. This is far and away the highest number on the Sonics, with Chirs Wilcox a distant 2nd at +7.20 ppg. Collison, Szczerbiak, and Johan Petro are the only other players with positive numbers all checking in at around +5 ppg. Thus far there's pretty good correlation with the PER statistic. 4 of the top 5 in PER are also 4 of the top 5 in adjusted +/- with the only exception being Kevin Durant.
But enough about the good guys, who's hurting the team? Not surprisingly, one of the Sonics 'point guards' (I'll take the quotes off when they start producing at even a slightly below average rate) in Delonte West at -12.08 ppg. So he's been worse than Kurt Thomas has been good. He's followed by the Sonic's rookie duo of Durant and Jeff Green who check in at -9.29 and -9.13 respectively. Staring 'point guard' Earl Watson is good for -8.17 ppg, and the only other players who have enough minutes to be properly evaluated are Damien Wilkins and Luke Ridnour at -6.24 and -3.61 ppg respectively.
From this, we could ascertain that perhaps Ridnour (when healthy) should be getting more minutes after all. The point guard position is going to be trouble no matter what. Shouldn't the Sonic's go with the lesser of three evils (much lesser when compared to Delonte West). Jeff Green's numbers are no surprise; he's largely struggled since his insertion into the starting lineup, and if the Sonics had anything to play for, he would be sitting. As it is, the front office hopes taking lumps now will pay dividends later. I can't find month by month data for adjusted +/-, but I suspect that Damien Wilkin's numbers have gone off a cliff since November.
The big surprise, is of course Durant ranking 2nd worst in +/- after ranking near the top of the PER leaderboard for the Sonics. Why the enormous discrepancy? As John Hollinger has said, "PER takes everything into account, EXCEPT for positional defense". So PER takes everything Durant does well at this point, (create shots, score, etc.) and neglects his biggest weakness: defenese. On the other hand, adjusted +/- begins by blindly comparing how many points a team scores and allows while a particular player is on the floor. If a player scores 10 points and gives up 20, that's going to show up in the stats.
I'll be back tomorrow with a 2nd half game plan, including suggestions to get the most out of the team.
Thus far, the Sonics are 13-38, and are being outscored by an average of 7.3 points per game. Suppose we want a stat that's more directly tied to how many points the each given player is producing? That's were the adjusted +/- statistic comes in. It's computed by simply subtracting the number of points allowed by the team from the number of points scored by the team while any particular player is on the floor. Then the number is scaled to account for the effect of the teammates on the floor at the time (since a player is likely to look better when Lebron James is on the floor, then when his backup is in), and scaled for 100 possesions per game. Basketballvalue.com has taken it upone themselves to keep updated adjusted +/- statistics, which I'll be borrowing here. The leader at midseason for the Sonics? Mr. Kurt Thomas, who stands at +11.22 ppg. This is far and away the highest number on the Sonics, with Chirs Wilcox a distant 2nd at +7.20 ppg. Collison, Szczerbiak, and Johan Petro are the only other players with positive numbers all checking in at around +5 ppg. Thus far there's pretty good correlation with the PER statistic. 4 of the top 5 in PER are also 4 of the top 5 in adjusted +/- with the only exception being Kevin Durant.
But enough about the good guys, who's hurting the team? Not surprisingly, one of the Sonics 'point guards' (I'll take the quotes off when they start producing at even a slightly below average rate) in Delonte West at -12.08 ppg. So he's been worse than Kurt Thomas has been good. He's followed by the Sonic's rookie duo of Durant and Jeff Green who check in at -9.29 and -9.13 respectively. Staring 'point guard' Earl Watson is good for -8.17 ppg, and the only other players who have enough minutes to be properly evaluated are Damien Wilkins and Luke Ridnour at -6.24 and -3.61 ppg respectively.
From this, we could ascertain that perhaps Ridnour (when healthy) should be getting more minutes after all. The point guard position is going to be trouble no matter what. Shouldn't the Sonic's go with the lesser of three evils (much lesser when compared to Delonte West). Jeff Green's numbers are no surprise; he's largely struggled since his insertion into the starting lineup, and if the Sonics had anything to play for, he would be sitting. As it is, the front office hopes taking lumps now will pay dividends later. I can't find month by month data for adjusted +/-, but I suspect that Damien Wilkin's numbers have gone off a cliff since November.
The big surprise, is of course Durant ranking 2nd worst in +/- after ranking near the top of the PER leaderboard for the Sonics. Why the enormous discrepancy? As John Hollinger has said, "PER takes everything into account, EXCEPT for positional defense". So PER takes everything Durant does well at this point, (create shots, score, etc.) and neglects his biggest weakness: defenese. On the other hand, adjusted +/- begins by blindly comparing how many points a team scores and allows while a particular player is on the floor. If a player scores 10 points and gives up 20, that's going to show up in the stats.
I'll be back tomorrow with a 2nd half game plan, including suggestions to get the most out of the team.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Stern expects Sonics to leave Seattle
As someone who is openly rooting for the Sonics to come to OKC, today's press conference with David Stern was a welcome read. Stern's statements were extremely blunt (from espn.com)
"It's apparent to all who are watching that the Sonics are heading out of Seattle," Stern said during his annual All-Star Weekend news conference. "I accept that inevitability at this point. There is no miracle here."
While this is no shock to anyone who has been paying even the slightest bit of attention to the Sonics over the past year, that the commisioner of the NBA is so openly speaking about the Sonics future move speaks volumes about the likelihood of the Seattle working something out with the team. While Stern floated both next season and 2010 as potential future moving dates, its apparent that the franchise and perhaps the city of Seattle would be best served by a clean break as soon as possible.
The franchise will be stuck in neutral until they are able to relocate, and the uncertainty facing the players will likely be a hinderance in future (and hopefully more competitive) seasons. Imagine being a player and not knowing when or where you will be next year. How can the franchise expect to entice free agents without being able to tell them where they will be playing with 100% certainty?
For Seattle, the city would best be served by moving on so that they can lay the groundwork for the next team to move there. If the Sonics and Seattle have irreconcible differences (so to speak), why not move on and try to find the next match for a prospective NBA team? Seattle is a terrific market, a great basketball city, and can obviously support a NBA team (when the rug isn't being pulled out underneath them). There is eventually going to be another franchise in Seattle no matter what threats Stern makes. The sooner the Sonics are out of town and Seattle can start wooing a new franchise (the Grizzlies? the Hornets?), the sooner the NBA will return to Seattle.
The one thing I don't understand from the city of Seattle's viewpoint is this: at some point a new arena is going to have to be built if they want an NBA team. I know the Key Arena was just updated not that long ago, and I know the city is still paying the price. But there is no way a new team is going to come play at the Key, not after the Sonics washed out of there in the recent past. So the city can either man up and build another arena, and keep the beloved Sonics now, or they can wait 5 years, man up and build another arena, and host the Seattle Grizzlies. Or perhaps they'll change their name to the Seattle Rain at the point. The bottom line is that the NBA is going to require a new arena in Seattle. Either they can do it now and keep the Sonics or do it later and woo a new team, but they are going to have to do it if they want a team. Why not just do it now?
That's a rhetorical question. I know exactly why they won't do it. There is too much bad blood between the city and the Sonic's ownership even if the Key arena wasn't still bleeding money out of the city. But in a perfect world, that's what makes the most sense. And I want the Sonics to come to Oklahoma City.
"It's apparent to all who are watching that the Sonics are heading out of Seattle," Stern said during his annual All-Star Weekend news conference. "I accept that inevitability at this point. There is no miracle here."
While this is no shock to anyone who has been paying even the slightest bit of attention to the Sonics over the past year, that the commisioner of the NBA is so openly speaking about the Sonics future move speaks volumes about the likelihood of the Seattle working something out with the team. While Stern floated both next season and 2010 as potential future moving dates, its apparent that the franchise and perhaps the city of Seattle would be best served by a clean break as soon as possible.
The franchise will be stuck in neutral until they are able to relocate, and the uncertainty facing the players will likely be a hinderance in future (and hopefully more competitive) seasons. Imagine being a player and not knowing when or where you will be next year. How can the franchise expect to entice free agents without being able to tell them where they will be playing with 100% certainty?
For Seattle, the city would best be served by moving on so that they can lay the groundwork for the next team to move there. If the Sonics and Seattle have irreconcible differences (so to speak), why not move on and try to find the next match for a prospective NBA team? Seattle is a terrific market, a great basketball city, and can obviously support a NBA team (when the rug isn't being pulled out underneath them). There is eventually going to be another franchise in Seattle no matter what threats Stern makes. The sooner the Sonics are out of town and Seattle can start wooing a new franchise (the Grizzlies? the Hornets?), the sooner the NBA will return to Seattle.
The one thing I don't understand from the city of Seattle's viewpoint is this: at some point a new arena is going to have to be built if they want an NBA team. I know the Key Arena was just updated not that long ago, and I know the city is still paying the price. But there is no way a new team is going to come play at the Key, not after the Sonics washed out of there in the recent past. So the city can either man up and build another arena, and keep the beloved Sonics now, or they can wait 5 years, man up and build another arena, and host the Seattle Grizzlies. Or perhaps they'll change their name to the Seattle Rain at the point. The bottom line is that the NBA is going to require a new arena in Seattle. Either they can do it now and keep the Sonics or do it later and woo a new team, but they are going to have to do it if they want a team. Why not just do it now?
That's a rhetorical question. I know exactly why they won't do it. There is too much bad blood between the city and the Sonic's ownership even if the Key arena wasn't still bleeding money out of the city. But in a perfect world, that's what makes the most sense. And I want the Sonics to come to Oklahoma City.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Sonic Streak: 3 Games (Seattle 86 - New York 85)
Coming off of two straight home wins, the Sonics went back to the well tonight and came back with their 3rd consecutive win: 86-85 over the Knicks. Kevin Durant and Chris Wilcox were the only Sonics to score in double figures notching 21 and 20 points respectively. While KD went only 7-21 from the field, he wasn't forcing shots from outside (1-1 on 3's) and got to the line (6-8). This is the type of performance the Sonics can win with. Especially if you dominate one category like the Sonics did tonight...
The Knicks had a much better shooting night (44.4% to 39.5%), took better care of the ball (2 less turnovers), and got to the line more (26 attempts to 20 attempts). So how did the Sonics manage to win? Rebounds. The Sonics destroyed the Knicks on the glass, outrebounding them 55-34, a margin of +21 for the Sonics. This included an almost unfathomable 19-3 edge on the offensive glass, which yielded 14 extra shots for the Sonics, allowing them to make up for their poorer efficiency from the field. Nick Collison and Wilcox led the way with 12 and 10 rebounds respectively.
Durant is averaging almost 24 ppg over the 3-game stretch, the first time he's cracked the 20-point barrier in three straight games in almost a month. Not coincidentally, the Sonics won just one game in that time, highlighting Durant's value to the team. With the Sonics struggling to score (the Sonics rank dead last in the leaugue in offensive efficiency at 96.3 points per 100 possessions), they can't win if they aren't getting a good night from KD. Out of the Sonics 14 wins, only 4 game with Durant scoring less than 20. Conversely, the Sonics are 3-0 when Durant breaks the 3o point mark. These stats may seem obvious, but they really put Durant's importance into perspective. As a 19 year-old rookie, his team can only win when he brings his 'A' game. Who was the last rookie with that sort of pressure on him? LeBron James. He turned out pretty good, I think.
Notes: It's hard to believe that after we spent all of January touting Wally Szczerbiak's big month, he's missed 2 games in a row while the Sonics have rolled off 3-straight wins... Nick Collison just missed another double-double with 9 points and 12 rebounds... Delonte West had a brutal night shooting the ball, going 3-13. But Coach Carlesimo stuck with him in the 4th quarter anyway, as West chipped in 5 points in the 4th quarter(along with alot of missed shots)... Durant had both the game-winning points, and the turnover in the final minute to give the Knick's hope. He's not there yet, but he's bringing alot more to the table than he's taking off... The Sonics totaled just 34 points in the first half... The Sonics end their 7-game homestand against Chicago Monday night.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Sonics Streak: 2 games (Sonics 101 Cavs 95)
I guess the Sonics are just a streaky team. After finally ending the a 14 game losing streak Tuesday night against the San Antonio Spurs (minus Tony Parker), the Sonics are officially on a tear, beating the Cleveland Cavs (minus LeBron James) 101-95. Despite the relatively close final score, the Sonics controlled the game, opening up a 16 point lead in the first quarter, outscoring the Cavs 40-24. The Sonics' replicated Tuesday night's formula, with Kevin Durant leading the way with 24 points on 10-16 shooting, aided by Chris Wilcox (18 and 13), Jeff Green (17 points on 8-8 shooting), and Kurt Thomas (16 and 6).
Some might say that the Sonics looked out, facing the Cavs while they were missing their best player (and the best player in the NBA). But the fact of the matter is, that the Sonics shot over 56% as a team and dished out a remarkable 34 assists on 44 made baskets. In fact, the Sonics had more assists than the Cavs had made baskets, which is something that rarely happens. Earl Watson had a typical 2-6 shooting night, but more for made up for it with 12 assists. Kevin Durant continued his trend of filling up the stat sheet, adding 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks. He did have 5 turnovers in this game, but it turned out to be of little consequence.
It's hard to imagine ending a month with a 2-13 record and momentum, but that's exactly what the Sonics have done in halting their painful, PAINFUL, losing streak, and then beating both of the 2007 NBA Finals participants. The Sonics open up February with 2 more winnable games at home vs. the Knicks and Chicago, before hitting the road for games vs. the Kings and Suns. I'm trying not to read too much into the last two wins, both of which were against teams missing a key player (and in the case of Cleveland, the league MVP), but you have to figure the Sonics are good for a win vs. the Knicks, and at least 50/50 vs. the Bulls.
One last note: KD might be turning the corner. Watch out NBA.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
SONICS WIN! SONICS WIN!
After losing to Philadelphia, Phoenix, Washington, Cleveland, New Jersey, Dallas, the Lakers, New Orleans, Memphis, Dallas (again), Houston, Houston (again), Atlanta and Sacramento, the Sonics finally broke through in 2008 with a win against the defending champion San Antonio Spurs. Kevin Durant was terrific scoring 26 points, including what turned out to be the winning basket with 32 seconds left in the game to put the Sonics ahead by 1. After Fabrice Oberto (Duncan and Ginobili and this guy is taking pressure shots?) couldn't convert a layup on the other end, Luke Ridnour padded the lead with two clutch free throws. Manu Ginobili then missed a 3-pointer and that was all she wrote for the Sonics long, long, long losing streak.
Durant's 26 points came on 9-19 shooting, which he complemented with a perfect 7-7 night from the free throw line. To top it off, Durant stuffed the stat sheet with 7 rebounds and his second consecutive 5-assist game to go along with a steal, a block and only 1 turnover. The Sonics' big men stepped it up bigtime against the Spurs with Chris Wilcox leading the way with 16 points and 10 boards. Not to be outdone, Nick Collison scored 14 and added 10 boards of his own, and Kurt Thomas put up 10 and 6, including two absolutely crucial jumpers with less than 2 minutes which allowed the Sonics to convert possessions down the stretch. As big as Durant's shot was, the Sonics wouldn't have won this game without the big veteran knocking down clutch shots in the halfcourt offense.
With Tony Parker sitting out the game tonight, you might think that this is one game where the Sonics actualy have an advantage at point guard with the Spurs starting career backup Jacque Vaughn. You'd be wrong. Earl Watson went a remarkable 0-8 from the field scoring his only 2 points on a pair of free throws. Luke Ridnour was almost as bad going just 1-6 from the field, but taking advangtage of the oppurtunity for redemption by hitting the clutch free throws with under a minute left.
Long term, what does this do for the team? Not much in terms of overall record, as the damage has been done. But I promise you, this is a big monkey off of the team's back. Losing leads to more losing, and the Sonic's need their core to learn how to win together. It's a good thing I'm not a GM. I'd be resigning Kurt Thomas to a 10-year $75 million deal right now if I was GM.
Next Target: The Cleveland Cavs on Thursday night. You're next Lebron.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Sonic Streak: 14 Games ( Sacramento 103 Supersonics 101)
And the streak reached 14 consecutive games tonight in a horrifying 103-101 last second loss to the Sacramento Kings. After Damien Wilkins hit a huge 3-pointer to tie the game at 101 with 6 seconds left, Kevin Martin lowered the boom with a buzzer-beater to leave the Sonics hopes crashed once again. While fans can take heart in the fact that the Sonics have had an oppurtunity to win 3 of the last four games, the fact is 14 losses in a row is 14 losses in a row. Kevin Durant had another tough shooting night, hammering away for a 5-20 night. He did show some progress, by salvaging his horrible night by going 9-10 from the free throw line to finish with 19 points and 5 assists( hey if you're going to miss 15 shots, at least you can pass the ball a bit). Kurt Thomas had a very strong game vs. a weak Kings frontline, checking in with 15 points and 10 rebounds in just 28 minutes. Earl Watson had 10 points and 8 assists despite shooting just 33% from the field.
Obviously if you lose a buzzer-beater, you probably didn't play that bad, and that was the case for the Sonics as they pounded the glass vs. the Kings, out-rebounding them 45-36 (thanks to a 15-6 edge in offensive rebounds). But the Kings were better when it counted, going 23-26 from the free-throw line, compared to the Sonics 29-39 showing, and coming up with big shots down the stretch (Kevin Martin in particular shook off a toough night to make them when it counted). Despite the Sonics big edge in offensive rebounds, both the Sonics and Kings attempted 81 shots, which is surprising due to the Sonics percieved edge in possessions.
The loss vs. the Rockets Wednesday night was more painful due to the fact that the Sonics actually had a lead with just 2 minutes to go as compared to tonight where the Sonics had to hit a huge shot just to get it to overtime, but anytime you lose with a buzzer-beater its painful. The Sonics get a chance to buck this losing streak vs. the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night, and then meet the runner-up Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday. The only good news is that the moderately dreadful New York Knicks visit on Saturday, giving the Sonics a reasonable chance at a home win. The bad news is that the two games vs. the Spurs and Cavs mean that the Sonics stand a very good chance at going winless in January. Thats the kind of statsistic that really hurts morale.
On the plus side, another month of losses or two and we'll be right at the top of the lottery.
Draft Watch: January
In the midst of a 13-game losing streak, the Sonics have dropped to the second worst record in the NBA. While a difficult season was expected by almost all NBA analysts, Sonics fans held out hope for a competitive team who would improve as the season went on, and perhaps win 30+ games.
That hasn't happened. The Sonics need players, plain and simple. Right now there are only two players who are likely untouchable on the Sonics roster: Durant and Green. In reality, Green could be traded, but its unlikely the Sonics want to give up on him after 1 season, or that other teams are willing to give a good enough offer. Unfortuneatly both players are playing out of position right now, with Coach Carlesimo pushing Durant into the shooting guard position, and Green playing most of his post-November minutes at the small forward position. While both might develop into these positions, I think both would be better served to develop at their more natural positions of small forward for Durant, and power forward for Green. A move to small forward for Durant would give him more matchup advangtages and allow him to get closer to the basket (it's going to be much easier for him to take a small forward off the dribble as opposed to a typical shooting guard), rebound more and increase his general aggressiveness. One of Durant's strengths in college was his tremendous rebounding ability which has been almost eradicated in the NBA. Green might make sense at the small forward position eventually, but he isn't a good enough outside shooter, and would have a significant quickness advangtage at power forward. I'll assume the Sonics management is smart enough to recognize that these two are playing out of position and eventually move them. But if not, I'll rank the Sonics needs as
1) Point Guard
2) Center
3) Power Forward
4) Shooting Guard
5) Small Forward
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Chad Ford, ESPN.com's lead NBA draft analyst (and the best draft projector out there) lists five players as the consensus top players in the draft. As it stands, the Sonics would pick no worse than 5th overall at this point, with a reasonable chance to pick first overall. As such, we'll break down the top collegians who might end up with the Sonics next year, and try to rank them in order of preference. Ford puts Kansas State's Micheal Beasley, Memphis' Derrick Rose, Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan, Indiana's Eric Gordon and USC's OJ Mayo at the top of his draft list. NBAdraft.net has an identical top 5, with the exception of omitting OJ Mayo (ranked #9 overall) for Syracuse's Donte Green.
A closer look of each of top prospects:
1) Micheal Beasley 6-9, 235 Power Forward. Freshman.
Beasley is the consensus top player in the 2008 draft, averaging over 25 points and 12 rebounds for a surprising Kansas State squad. Beasley is the total package with athletiscm, aggression and skill, and is putting up the stats too match. He even has shooting range, hitting over 38% from 3-point range, and is packing a defensive punch by averaging almost 2 blocks per game. The downside? There are some questions about Beasley's character as he went to numerous high schools and is said to have somewhat questionable work habits. However, questionable work habits or not, Beasley produces like no other on the court, and it will be a surprise if he goes anywhere short of # 1 overall.
Sonics Perspective: Beasley is an excellent prospect who would provide a much needed frontcourt presence. Should the Sonics land the top overall pick, Beasley should be a slam dunk. However, we don't know how much the new management will value character in player evaluations. The Spurs created their dynasty by surrounding one elite player with high-character guys who play together and stay out of trouble. Will the Sonics be concerned about adding Beasley, who might not perfectly fit the Sonics' organizational design?
2. Derrick Rose 6-4, 195 Point Guard. Freshman
Rose is the starting point guard for the #1 team in the nation, the Memphis Tigers. Rose is averaging almost 15 points and 4 assists per game for one of the deepest teams in the NCAA. Rose has all the tools to be an elite point guard in the NBA, with great size, athletiscm, and ball-skills. By all accounts, Rose should be a high level NBA point guard. Outside of his modest statistics (compared to Beasley anyway), there aren't a lot negatives for Rose. He is probably quiet for a point guard, and is unlikely to be the spiritual leader on the floor. However, his basketball skills are without question.
Sonics Perspective: Rose fits the Sonics needs in a variety of ways. He is a talented point guard, that would immediately upgrade the Sonics on offense, and open up more fastbreak points. He would be another piece of the Sonics long term plan, and should help Durant and Green progress in the pro game.
3. DeAndre Jordan 7-0, 240 Center. Freshman
Jordan is the elite physical specimen of the class of 2008 with a tremendous combination of size and athleticism. Jordan is all potential, as his college stats of 9.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game are pedestrian compared to Beasley. However, Jordan has been limited to 21 minutes per game by Texas A&M coach Mark Turgeon, which has artifically lowered his stats. If Jordan was playing the 30 minutes per game his talent would seem to demand, he would be comfortably be averaging a double double (~14 points and 10 boards per game). Jordan is extremely raw with almost no offensive game (he shoots over 70% from the field because he only shoots either putbacks or open dunks). Jordan shoots under 40% from the free throw line. That would make Shaq cringe even in his worst season.
Sonics Perspective: Jordan would seem to be a better prospect than any of the 3 centers the Sonics drafted from 2004-2006, all of whom could be called busts at this point. His upside would suggest he could be a Tyson Chandler type player after a few years of development. But keep in mind, it took Chandler 5-6 years to become the player he currently is for the Western Conference leading New Orleans Hornets. Jordan is a classic boom or bust prospect, and I doubt the Sonics are in the mood to take a big chance with such a cruicial pick. It's unlikely that Jordan will ever score more than 15 points per game in the pros. Yesterday, playing against a Oklahoma State team with no tangible post presence or size (future NBA small forward Marcus Dove was the closest thing to a 'post' that Oklahoma State has), Jordan was a non-factor, even though he was by far the most gifted inside player on the floor. Jordan has a lot of development to do, and I'm not sure if the Sonics want to wait to see if his tree will bare any fruit.
4. Eric Gordon 6-5, 205 Shooting Guard. Freshman.
Gordon has been the best player on a quality Indiana team, immediately taking over as the leading scorer and go-to guy on a veteran Hoosier team. Gordon is a tremendous scorer, pumping in over 22 ppg on almost 50% shooting, including 41% from 3-point range. Gordon should be able to score 15 ppg right off the bat at the NBA level. Gordon has great athletiscm and a great shooting stroke, but is going to rank a little lower due to his size. He's listed at 6'5" which is fine, but the prototype NBA shooting guard is 6'6" to 6'7" (or 6'9" in Coach Carlesimo's mind). He might struggle to find a NBA position, much like Jeff Green.
Sonics Perspective: Gordon would fill a need of sorts for the Sonics, and hopefully force Kevin Durant to play the small forward position. On a team so devoid of offense, Gordon's shooting ability would be a tremendous boon, both opening up the court and adding points to the scoreboard. Gordon's only question is size, as he's answered everything else. Scouts don't believe he can transition to point guard (a la Gilbert Arenas or Dwyane Wade), so he'll be stuck as an undersized '2'. Ray Allen made it work with elite shooting ability. Can Gordon?
5. OJ Mayo 6-4, 195 Freshman. Shooting Guard
Everyone knows Mayo's name; he's been the next LeBron for 5 years now. Mayo finally made it to college, and has been pretty good. He's average almost 20 ppg with 4 rebound and 3 assists on 45% shooting. For any other player, that would be enough, but for a player with Mayo's hype, it's seen as a bit of a disappointment. However, don't be fooled. Mayo is still a tremendous talent and has a great shot at being an All-Star down the line.
Sonics Perspective: Mayo's unquestionable talent aside, there are huge character concerns. Whether its because of the spotlight or not, Mayo is in the news alot for reasons that aren't usually good. He was ejected from his last high school game for punting a ball into the stands. He had a bizarre recruitment which ended with Mayo essentially calling USC coach Tim Floyd and telling him that he was coming. Floyd hadn't been recruiting Mayo at that point. Just this last week, Mayo got into hot water for accepting tickets to a Denver Nugget's game courtesoy of Carmelo Anthony. Mayo is talented and might actually be underrated due to his 'disappointing' year. Just don't expect the Sonics and GM Sam Presti to draft him.
6. Donte Greene 6-8, 215 Freshman. Small Forward.
Greene has rocketed up the draft charts this season with his great play for the Orange of Syracuse. He is averaging almost 18 and 8, while shooting 38% from 3-point range and adding 2 blocks per game for good measure. Greene has actually improved upon his high school numbers (how often does that happen) indicating he is either improving at an incredible rate, or was that bored by his high school competition. He has way more upside than the Green that the Sonics took last year.
Sonics Perspective: Greene is one of the high risers in the draft, could jump even higher as the season continues. However, due to the glut of small fowards on their roster, if the Sonics take Greene, you either have to question the front office's sanity or take it as an acknowledgement that the front office whiffed on the Jeff Green pick last year. I don't Greene will end up with the Sonic's but his talent is impressive. He might be the 3rd best player in the draft.
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Based on this breakdown, I think the Sonics draft board looks something like this:
1) Micheal Beasley
2) Derrick Rose
3) Eric Gordon
4) Donte Greene
5) DeAndre Jordan
6) OJ Mayo
I think the Sonics will be hoping for a top-2 pick, as both options would fill an immediate need and are enormously talented. Gordon and Greene are both talented players, but aren't natural fits for the Sonics. Jordan is very talented, but I think (hope?) the Sonics have a faster timeline for success then waiting for 5 years for Jordan to develop. And Mayo is just too much of a character risk.
All that said, I'd kill just to see this losing streak end. This is painful.
That hasn't happened. The Sonics need players, plain and simple. Right now there are only two players who are likely untouchable on the Sonics roster: Durant and Green. In reality, Green could be traded, but its unlikely the Sonics want to give up on him after 1 season, or that other teams are willing to give a good enough offer. Unfortuneatly both players are playing out of position right now, with Coach Carlesimo pushing Durant into the shooting guard position, and Green playing most of his post-November minutes at the small forward position. While both might develop into these positions, I think both would be better served to develop at their more natural positions of small forward for Durant, and power forward for Green. A move to small forward for Durant would give him more matchup advangtages and allow him to get closer to the basket (it's going to be much easier for him to take a small forward off the dribble as opposed to a typical shooting guard), rebound more and increase his general aggressiveness. One of Durant's strengths in college was his tremendous rebounding ability which has been almost eradicated in the NBA. Green might make sense at the small forward position eventually, but he isn't a good enough outside shooter, and would have a significant quickness advangtage at power forward. I'll assume the Sonics management is smart enough to recognize that these two are playing out of position and eventually move them. But if not, I'll rank the Sonics needs as
1) Point Guard
2) Center
3) Power Forward
4) Shooting Guard
5) Small Forward
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Chad Ford, ESPN.com's lead NBA draft analyst (and the best draft projector out there) lists five players as the consensus top players in the draft. As it stands, the Sonics would pick no worse than 5th overall at this point, with a reasonable chance to pick first overall. As such, we'll break down the top collegians who might end up with the Sonics next year, and try to rank them in order of preference. Ford puts Kansas State's Micheal Beasley, Memphis' Derrick Rose, Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan, Indiana's Eric Gordon and USC's OJ Mayo at the top of his draft list. NBAdraft.net has an identical top 5, with the exception of omitting OJ Mayo (ranked #9 overall) for Syracuse's Donte Green.
A closer look of each of top prospects:
1) Micheal Beasley 6-9, 235 Power Forward. Freshman.
Beasley is the consensus top player in the 2008 draft, averaging over 25 points and 12 rebounds for a surprising Kansas State squad. Beasley is the total package with athletiscm, aggression and skill, and is putting up the stats too match. He even has shooting range, hitting over 38% from 3-point range, and is packing a defensive punch by averaging almost 2 blocks per game. The downside? There are some questions about Beasley's character as he went to numerous high schools and is said to have somewhat questionable work habits. However, questionable work habits or not, Beasley produces like no other on the court, and it will be a surprise if he goes anywhere short of # 1 overall.
Sonics Perspective: Beasley is an excellent prospect who would provide a much needed frontcourt presence. Should the Sonics land the top overall pick, Beasley should be a slam dunk. However, we don't know how much the new management will value character in player evaluations. The Spurs created their dynasty by surrounding one elite player with high-character guys who play together and stay out of trouble. Will the Sonics be concerned about adding Beasley, who might not perfectly fit the Sonics' organizational design?
2. Derrick Rose 6-4, 195 Point Guard. Freshman
Rose is the starting point guard for the #1 team in the nation, the Memphis Tigers. Rose is averaging almost 15 points and 4 assists per game for one of the deepest teams in the NCAA. Rose has all the tools to be an elite point guard in the NBA, with great size, athletiscm, and ball-skills. By all accounts, Rose should be a high level NBA point guard. Outside of his modest statistics (compared to Beasley anyway), there aren't a lot negatives for Rose. He is probably quiet for a point guard, and is unlikely to be the spiritual leader on the floor. However, his basketball skills are without question.
Sonics Perspective: Rose fits the Sonics needs in a variety of ways. He is a talented point guard, that would immediately upgrade the Sonics on offense, and open up more fastbreak points. He would be another piece of the Sonics long term plan, and should help Durant and Green progress in the pro game.
3. DeAndre Jordan 7-0, 240 Center. Freshman
Jordan is the elite physical specimen of the class of 2008 with a tremendous combination of size and athleticism. Jordan is all potential, as his college stats of 9.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game are pedestrian compared to Beasley. However, Jordan has been limited to 21 minutes per game by Texas A&M coach Mark Turgeon, which has artifically lowered his stats. If Jordan was playing the 30 minutes per game his talent would seem to demand, he would be comfortably be averaging a double double (~14 points and 10 boards per game). Jordan is extremely raw with almost no offensive game (he shoots over 70% from the field because he only shoots either putbacks or open dunks). Jordan shoots under 40% from the free throw line. That would make Shaq cringe even in his worst season.
Sonics Perspective: Jordan would seem to be a better prospect than any of the 3 centers the Sonics drafted from 2004-2006, all of whom could be called busts at this point. His upside would suggest he could be a Tyson Chandler type player after a few years of development. But keep in mind, it took Chandler 5-6 years to become the player he currently is for the Western Conference leading New Orleans Hornets. Jordan is a classic boom or bust prospect, and I doubt the Sonics are in the mood to take a big chance with such a cruicial pick. It's unlikely that Jordan will ever score more than 15 points per game in the pros. Yesterday, playing against a Oklahoma State team with no tangible post presence or size (future NBA small forward Marcus Dove was the closest thing to a 'post' that Oklahoma State has), Jordan was a non-factor, even though he was by far the most gifted inside player on the floor. Jordan has a lot of development to do, and I'm not sure if the Sonics want to wait to see if his tree will bare any fruit.
4. Eric Gordon 6-5, 205 Shooting Guard. Freshman.
Gordon has been the best player on a quality Indiana team, immediately taking over as the leading scorer and go-to guy on a veteran Hoosier team. Gordon is a tremendous scorer, pumping in over 22 ppg on almost 50% shooting, including 41% from 3-point range. Gordon should be able to score 15 ppg right off the bat at the NBA level. Gordon has great athletiscm and a great shooting stroke, but is going to rank a little lower due to his size. He's listed at 6'5" which is fine, but the prototype NBA shooting guard is 6'6" to 6'7" (or 6'9" in Coach Carlesimo's mind). He might struggle to find a NBA position, much like Jeff Green.
Sonics Perspective: Gordon would fill a need of sorts for the Sonics, and hopefully force Kevin Durant to play the small forward position. On a team so devoid of offense, Gordon's shooting ability would be a tremendous boon, both opening up the court and adding points to the scoreboard. Gordon's only question is size, as he's answered everything else. Scouts don't believe he can transition to point guard (a la Gilbert Arenas or Dwyane Wade), so he'll be stuck as an undersized '2'. Ray Allen made it work with elite shooting ability. Can Gordon?
5. OJ Mayo 6-4, 195 Freshman. Shooting Guard
Everyone knows Mayo's name; he's been the next LeBron for 5 years now. Mayo finally made it to college, and has been pretty good. He's average almost 20 ppg with 4 rebound and 3 assists on 45% shooting. For any other player, that would be enough, but for a player with Mayo's hype, it's seen as a bit of a disappointment. However, don't be fooled. Mayo is still a tremendous talent and has a great shot at being an All-Star down the line.
Sonics Perspective: Mayo's unquestionable talent aside, there are huge character concerns. Whether its because of the spotlight or not, Mayo is in the news alot for reasons that aren't usually good. He was ejected from his last high school game for punting a ball into the stands. He had a bizarre recruitment which ended with Mayo essentially calling USC coach Tim Floyd and telling him that he was coming. Floyd hadn't been recruiting Mayo at that point. Just this last week, Mayo got into hot water for accepting tickets to a Denver Nugget's game courtesoy of Carmelo Anthony. Mayo is talented and might actually be underrated due to his 'disappointing' year. Just don't expect the Sonics and GM Sam Presti to draft him.
6. Donte Greene 6-8, 215 Freshman. Small Forward.
Greene has rocketed up the draft charts this season with his great play for the Orange of Syracuse. He is averaging almost 18 and 8, while shooting 38% from 3-point range and adding 2 blocks per game for good measure. Greene has actually improved upon his high school numbers (how often does that happen) indicating he is either improving at an incredible rate, or was that bored by his high school competition. He has way more upside than the Green that the Sonics took last year.
Sonics Perspective: Greene is one of the high risers in the draft, could jump even higher as the season continues. However, due to the glut of small fowards on their roster, if the Sonics take Greene, you either have to question the front office's sanity or take it as an acknowledgement that the front office whiffed on the Jeff Green pick last year. I don't Greene will end up with the Sonic's but his talent is impressive. He might be the 3rd best player in the draft.
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Based on this breakdown, I think the Sonics draft board looks something like this:
1) Micheal Beasley
2) Derrick Rose
3) Eric Gordon
4) Donte Greene
5) DeAndre Jordan
6) OJ Mayo
I think the Sonics will be hoping for a top-2 pick, as both options would fill an immediate need and are enormously talented. Gordon and Greene are both talented players, but aren't natural fits for the Sonics. Jordan is very talented, but I think (hope?) the Sonics have a faster timeline for success then waiting for 5 years for Jordan to develop. And Mayo is just too much of a character risk.
All that said, I'd kill just to see this losing streak end. This is painful.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Sonic Streak: 11 Games (Houston Rockets 96 Seattle 89)
Advantage: Houston. The streak reached 11 games as the Rockets took the first game of a 'doubleheader' on a rare weekday afternoon game to commemerate Martin Luther King day. Though the Sonics lost, they were competitive, keeping the game close to the end (down four with about 2 minutes remaining), and hopefully setting the tone for the rematch in 2 days at home. Yao Ming was the difference-maker for Houston, scoring 30 points and pulling down 17 rebounds against an overmatched Sonics frontline. Really who can match up with Yao? Kurt Thomas is crafty, but Thomas, Collison and Wilcox are undersized against normal centers, let alone 7'6" giants like Yao.
Signs of Progress: Earl Watson had a good game scoring 9 points on 4-8 shooting and dished 9 assists in only of 25 minutes of play. He also played excellent defense on Rafer Alston , helping force him into a 5-17 night shooting the ball. Jeff Green was extremely agressive, leading the Sonics in both attempts and points, with 15 points on 7-17 shooting (the 17 shots were a season high for Green). On a team so devoid of offense, the skilled players (Szczerbiak, Green, Robert Swift) need to shoot. Alright, I threw Robert Swift in there just to make sure you were paying attention. Wally had a somewhat slow night, but still added 15 points on 7-16 shooting. The Sonics managed to stay in the game for 48 minutes, as opposed to less than a quarter vs. the Hornets and Mavericks.
Still needs work: The Sonics don't have a shotblocking presencse, but it would be nice to not be outblocked every game. The Rockets swatted 10 shots to the Sonics 3. The Rockets were steady with the ball with only 10 turnovers. Durant struggled again shooting just 4-13, and settling for tough shots. I'm afraid his confidence is just going to shatter at some point. Chris Wilcox is still slowed after his injury and continues to play poorly in limited minutes.
Verdict: For the first time since the Lakers game, and only the second time in 2008, the Sonics appeared to have a pulse. Next Wednesday will bring the first win of the year back home in Seattle. Book it.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Sonic Streak: 10 Games (Dallas Mavericks 111 - Seattle Supersonics 96
The Sonics lost again last night, pushing the losing streak to 10 games (now that the streak has reached double digits, I'm going to grant it italicized status). I (and every Sonics fan) had hoped that by this point in the season we would be referring to a streak of Kevin Durant 30 point games, or Earl Watson 10 assist games, but instead we're being treated to a ten game losing streak as a winless January becomes increasingly possible. Last night's 111-96 loss to the Maverick's certainly did nothing to brighten the mood.
Dallas controlled the game from the opening tap, opening up a 33-24 lead in the first quarter and 66-44 at the half. The Sonics' halfhearted rally fell well short, and the game ended as a 16 point Maverick victory. Wally Szczerbiak continued his strong play, scoring 26 point on 9-15 shooting (sound familiar?). Oddly, Wally did a lot of work at the charity stripe, going 8-8 from the line, while only taking (and missing) two 3-pointers. Szczerbiak has increased his scoring average every month of the season, and is certainly the most consistent option on offense considering Durant's up and down season. Nick Collison had another strong game contributing 16 points and 12 rebounds. Collison's 16 point night was his 3rd highest offensive output of both the season and the month. January has marked a significant increase in production for the power forward, with Collison totaling 24, 18, 16 and 15 points during the losing stretch. Collison's play in spite of the losing streak and tough season echo one of my beliefs of looking at the college player's who come from the winning programs (Collison went to KU). I'm a big stat guy, but I also believe there is something to be said for knowing how to win. Playing like the game matters, even when it doesn't prepares to succeed when it does matter. FYI, Collison's PER is 16.09 this season, a career high.
I have deja vu writing these posts, as I always try to accenuate the positives, noting who played well, and spending less time on who played poorly (ideally anyway). I follow college sports intently (I am from Oklahoma after all), and I don't believe in ripping athletes just because they go about their jobs in a very public arena. But after watching the same players have little or no positive impact on the game over and over again, it's hard not to point it out. The Sonics have gotten nothing out of the point guard position this year. I had high hopes for Delonte West, but his minutes seem to yo-yo and he can't stay healthy enough to build up any momentum. Earl Watson is the lesser of 3 evils, but on a team that is playing so poorly on the offensive end, the offensively challenged point guard has to be viewed critically. Luke Ridnour is shooting under 40% on the season (the Earl Watson line), and also has trouble staying healthy. Damien Wilkins has completely squandered his strong start, regressing to a level where it wouldn't be noticed if he dropped off of the roster entirely. Chris Wilcox's production dropped off after a great start, and now he's trying to get back into the flow after injury. 1-2 of these guys are going to have to turn their season around for the Sonics to pull out of this tailspin.
I omitted Kurt Thomas, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green from the players listed above for different reasons. Thomas is still playing pretty well, and doesn't deserve any criticism. He's not in the Sonic's long term plans anyway given his age. Jeff Green was having a pretty darn good rookie year until January. At some point, Coach Carlesimo moved Green to the perimeter, when in actuality he's a 3/4 tweener. He still needs some time on the inside, but since Kurt Thomas has come back there have been less minutes available inside. Consequently, his rebounding and shooting % have plummeted from his first two months. Green needs to get more minutes in the post to regain some of his confidence. Durant is just confusing. He's taking much longer than anyone anticipated to adjust to the NBA game, and by adjust, I mean show any signs of tangible improvement. Durant's offensive output has slightly declined in each month of the season, to the point that he is shooting just 38% from the field in January, pulling his season fg% to .399 (aka below the Earl Watson line). It will take a whole post to summarize my feelings on Durant, but to start with I think he needs to be shifted to the Small Forward position. I know Coach Carlemsimo thinks he's a shooting guard, but he's not. He's a small forward. Eventually you have to hope that these things become so obvious that everyone knows a change has to be made, and the change is made. I guess we aren't that point yet.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Sometimes, they have your number: Memphis 124 - Seattle 100
Memphis stinks. The Grizzlies are 11-28 on the year, and are in last place in the Southwest division. But for whatever reason, the Grizzlies just have the Sonics down, having beaten them in all 3 matchups this year. Each loss has been progressively worse, as the Sonics have lost by 7, 18 and tonight 24 points. If you take out the 3 games the Grizzlies have beaten the Sonics in, their record falls to 8-28: that's actually worse than the Sonics.
Tonight's loss, Seattle's 9th straight, was a microcosm of the entire losing streak. It played out almost identically to the rest of their losses, with Durant and Szczerbiak leading the team in scoring with 22 and 19 respectively, and Wilcox and Collison chipping in 13 and 12 apiece. No one else provided any significant output. In fact three of the starters, Jeff Green, Kurt Thomas and Earl Watson combined for 10 points in over 60 minutes of court time. That's not good enough, and isn't going to be good enough 9 times out of 10 in the NBA.
More thoughts tomorrow before/after the Sonics play the Mavericks.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
2008 Blues...Winless in Seattle
As I'm back to consistently posting, now seems as good a time as any to reflect on the Sonics' troubles in the month as January. The symptoms are obvious. The Sonics are 0-7 for the month, losing by an average of 14.4 ppg. How bad have they been? The worst team in the league, with the corresponding worst point differential (the Minnesota Timberwolves), are actually 5 ppg better on the season. The numbers are staggering: losing by 18 @ Phoenix, by 22 @ Washington, by 20 vs. Dallas, and the 31 point debacle @ New Orleans last night.
So what's the problem? Offense. The defense has remained stunningly consistent over the course of the season allowing ~ 104 ppg allowed in every month. But the offense has fallen off a cliff, as the Sonics are barely averging 90 ppg in 2008. After shooting 44% as a team through the first 2 months of the season, the Sonics are struggling to crack 40% as a team (should we call the Earl Watson line?) Who are the chief offenders? It's easier to just single out who's shooting well. Szczerbiak, Collison, Thomas, and Chris Wilcox are all over 50%, i.e. the best shooter on the team and three interior players who get half of their points off of put-backs. Not that playing inside is an automatic pass to a high shooting percentage; Johan Petro is stuggling to crack the Watson line at 40.5%. Everyone else on the team, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER, is shooting under 40%. Four players are somehow shooting under 30%, which is almost unthinkable for a NBA caliber player for any reasonable sample size (and 7 games is getting close to 10% of a season). Delonte West shoots the ball 7 times a game and makes 25% of his shots. That's not good.
What has to change? I don't know. Durant is actually playing pretty well, aside from the 6-26 abomination vs. the Lakers (probably costing the Sonics their only win this year). Collison and Szczerbiak have both been very good. Szczerbiak just needs more minutes (and shots...he needs about 15 shots per game, he's only shooting the ball 10 times per game right now), and Collison is playing at the highest level of his career by posting a double-double for 2008. I'm not going to kill Jeff Green for falling into a rookie funk, and Wilcox has been injured and only played in 3 games with limited minutes. On the flipside, the Watson/Ridnour/West triumverate continues to disappoint making fixing the point guard position priority #1 in the off-season. Damien Wilkins apparently thought the season ended in mid-December...he's averaging 3 ppg in January. Johan Petro has been roughly twice as good as him. I can't put it in any stronger terms than that.
What comes next? More losses in all likelihood. The Sonics have a very winnable game vs. Memphis on Friday, but follow that with an unwinnable game @ Dallas and then 2 straight vs. Houston. Yao Ming will probably score about 80 points alone in those two games. It would be surprising for the Sonics to win 2 games in this stretch if they were playing well...at this point we all need to cross our fingers and hope they can surprise Memphis tomorrow. If they can't win one of these four...you're going to start reading a lot of columns about the draft.
So what's the problem? Offense. The defense has remained stunningly consistent over the course of the season allowing ~ 104 ppg allowed in every month. But the offense has fallen off a cliff, as the Sonics are barely averging 90 ppg in 2008. After shooting 44% as a team through the first 2 months of the season, the Sonics are struggling to crack 40% as a team (should we call the Earl Watson line?) Who are the chief offenders? It's easier to just single out who's shooting well. Szczerbiak, Collison, Thomas, and Chris Wilcox are all over 50%, i.e. the best shooter on the team and three interior players who get half of their points off of put-backs. Not that playing inside is an automatic pass to a high shooting percentage; Johan Petro is stuggling to crack the Watson line at 40.5%. Everyone else on the team, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER, is shooting under 40%. Four players are somehow shooting under 30%, which is almost unthinkable for a NBA caliber player for any reasonable sample size (and 7 games is getting close to 10% of a season). Delonte West shoots the ball 7 times a game and makes 25% of his shots. That's not good.
What has to change? I don't know. Durant is actually playing pretty well, aside from the 6-26 abomination vs. the Lakers (probably costing the Sonics their only win this year). Collison and Szczerbiak have both been very good. Szczerbiak just needs more minutes (and shots...he needs about 15 shots per game, he's only shooting the ball 10 times per game right now), and Collison is playing at the highest level of his career by posting a double-double for 2008. I'm not going to kill Jeff Green for falling into a rookie funk, and Wilcox has been injured and only played in 3 games with limited minutes. On the flipside, the Watson/Ridnour/West triumverate continues to disappoint making fixing the point guard position priority #1 in the off-season. Damien Wilkins apparently thought the season ended in mid-December...he's averaging 3 ppg in January. Johan Petro has been roughly twice as good as him. I can't put it in any stronger terms than that.
What comes next? More losses in all likelihood. The Sonics have a very winnable game vs. Memphis on Friday, but follow that with an unwinnable game @ Dallas and then 2 straight vs. Houston. Yao Ming will probably score about 80 points alone in those two games. It would be surprising for the Sonics to win 2 games in this stretch if they were playing well...at this point we all need to cross our fingers and hope they can surprise Memphis tomorrow. If they can't win one of these four...you're going to start reading a lot of columns about the draft.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Sonics vs. Hornets: It's an Oklahoma Lovefest!
Watching Oklahoma's once (the Hornets) and future (the Sonics) teams face off in New Orleans was a strange experience, especially as Seattle was never in the game. The Hornets jumped out to an immediate lead, outscoring the Sonics 30-18 in the first quarter, and pushing the lead to 19 at halftime. The Sonics tried to crawl back in the game, cutting the lead to 10 in the middle of the 3rd quarter, but their momentum quickly evaporated, and the Hornets cruised to a dominating 31 point win. Losing to the Hornets wasn't a surprise, after all, they are one of the best teams in the West (as long as everyone stays healthy; I'm looking at you Peja). It was disheartening to be so badly outplayed, especially coming off of a painful loss to the Lakers. This was the Sonics 8th straight loss, and their 7th of 2008. We're barely halfway through January.
Tyson Chandler continued to make the Hornet's look like geniuses for stealing him from Chicago by scoring 14 points and ripping down 21 rebounds. 21! Chandler has almost no offensive game, living off of putbacks and Chris Paul passes for layups, but his unbelievable athleticism allows him to convert a great % of shots (he was 7-9 on the night). Basically, 'Blackjack' Chandler is everything Seattle wishes Chris Wilcox could be, though Wilcox isn't and won't ever be anywhere near the rebounder that Chandler is. Watching Chandler dominate the glass, makes you wish Wilcox could just give consistent double digit rebounds.
What went right? Almost nothing. The Sonics outshot the Hornets from the free throw line, and equaled their blistering 55% shooting from three-point land, but were outplayed in every other statistical area. ALL of them. Earl Watson had his best game of the season, scoring 17 points and matching his season high in assists with 11, breaking out of a 5-game slump. Kevin Durant rebounded from his nightmare outing vs. the Lakers (6-26 shooting...Allen Iverson circa 1999 would even be embarrassed with that performance) by scoring 20 points on efficient 60% shooting. He also stuffed the stat sheet with 7 rebounds and 6 assists, albeit in a meaningless game. Wally kept up his strong play with 14 points. Coach Carlesimo narrowly avoided an aneurysm. That sums up the positives.
What can this team do? When will the next win come? They play a very winnable game against a Memphis team which has seemingly had Seattle's number this year on Friday, and follow that up with a game vs. the Maverick's on Saturday. I think it's safe to say that the Sonics aren't going to beat Dallas playing their second game in 2 nights, but they will then get to play 2 consecutive games against Houston in a scheduling quirk (1 home, 1 away). If the Sonics can't put away a bad Memphis team, they should be able to steal 1 of 2 vs. Houston. I hope.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Long time, No post: What I missed in December
So it's been 6 weeks since I posted here, but I think I actually have a pretty good excuse. After graduation, marriage, the holiday season and starting a new job, I had a pretty action packed December, but now I'm back and ready to go. Before catching up to the present month (which hasn't been pretty: the Sonics are 0-6), I'll look back at December, which was a pretty good month for the Sonics. They went 6-8 with wins against Minnesota(x2), Milwaukee, LA Clippers, New York, and Toronto. Now only one of those teams isn't currently in last place in their division (Toronto, a playoff team), but the first step to becoming a good team is beating the bad teams.
So the record was better, which is a tangible sign of improvement. But as far as the secondary signs of improvement...those were not in abundance. The Sonics averaged 97.1 ppg in December, down from 98.8 ppg in November. Which is probably attributable to the Sonics playing at a slower pace (they've fallen to the 6th fastest pace in the league for the season after being #1 in the league earlier in the year), but at the same time, the Sonics allowed the exact same number of points in November and December: 104.2 ppg. So despite playing at a slower pace, Seattle's point differential got worse.
From an individual standpoint, Wally Szczerbiak really broke out in December averaging 14.6 ppg in 26.0 mpg. Wally was a consistent scoring force, getting to double digits in all but two games for the month. He was as deadly as ever from beyond the arc, dialing in at over %40, and making almost 2 three-pointers/game. Kevin Durant was surprisingly consistent, but suffered small dips almost across the board (minutes, points, fg%, steals, rebounds...you get the point). That's not to say he isn't getting better, but we're all still waiting for him to really break out.
After strong starts, Chris Wilcox and Damien Wilkins both cooled in December, with Wilcox's scoring decreasing from to 15.4 ppg to 11.5 ppg. Wilkins' fall has been even more precipitous, falling from 14.0 ppg to 7.4 ppg. Wilkin's fall is at least in part due to Wally's big month, but his production has really fallen off.
Knowing what we know now, (i.e. the 0-6 start to January), it's clear that the big improvement in record for December was masking the lack of actual improvement in the Sonics...a lack of improvement that they are now paying the price for.
So the record was better, which is a tangible sign of improvement. But as far as the secondary signs of improvement...those were not in abundance. The Sonics averaged 97.1 ppg in December, down from 98.8 ppg in November. Which is probably attributable to the Sonics playing at a slower pace (they've fallen to the 6th fastest pace in the league for the season after being #1 in the league earlier in the year), but at the same time, the Sonics allowed the exact same number of points in November and December: 104.2 ppg. So despite playing at a slower pace, Seattle's point differential got worse.
From an individual standpoint, Wally Szczerbiak really broke out in December averaging 14.6 ppg in 26.0 mpg. Wally was a consistent scoring force, getting to double digits in all but two games for the month. He was as deadly as ever from beyond the arc, dialing in at over %40, and making almost 2 three-pointers/game. Kevin Durant was surprisingly consistent, but suffered small dips almost across the board (minutes, points, fg%, steals, rebounds...you get the point). That's not to say he isn't getting better, but we're all still waiting for him to really break out.
After strong starts, Chris Wilcox and Damien Wilkins both cooled in December, with Wilcox's scoring decreasing from to 15.4 ppg to 11.5 ppg. Wilkins' fall has been even more precipitous, falling from 14.0 ppg to 7.4 ppg. Wilkin's fall is at least in part due to Wally's big month, but his production has really fallen off.
Knowing what we know now, (i.e. the 0-6 start to January), it's clear that the big improvement in record for December was masking the lack of actual improvement in the Sonics...a lack of improvement that they are now paying the price for.
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