WE GOT ONE.

I was three paragraphs into this post, but I think that the title says it all. Welcome to the heartland, boys.

At the Break: Adjusted +/- ratings for the 2007-2008 Seattle Supersonics

With the season 'half' over (the Sonics have actually played 51 of 82 games), it's a natural time to step back and look at who is contributing the most to the team. According to PER, which is one of the premier statistics available to the masses (and as frequent readers know, the statistic I reference most), the Sonic's best player has easily been Chris Wilcox who is posting a PER of 17.35, which ranks 67th overall in the NBA. Four Sonics cluster together next, with Kurt Thomas, Wally Szczerbiak, Nick Collison and Kevin Durant all with a PER between 15 and 16. Everyone else on the team has a PER below 15. Since 15 is the league average, that means only 5 players on the Sonics are above average. Presumably, a good team either have a greater percentage of above average players, or who's best players would have significantly higher PERs. The Sonics, of course, do not qualify as a good team.

Thus far, the Sonics are 13-38, and are being outscored by an average of 7.3 points per game. Suppose we want a stat that's more directly tied to how many points the each given player is producing? That's were the adjusted +/- statistic comes in. It's computed by simply subtracting the number of points allowed by the team from the number of points scored by the team while any particular player is on the floor. Then the number is scaled to account for the effect of the teammates on the floor at the time (since a player is likely to look better when Lebron James is on the floor, then when his backup is in), and scaled for 100 possesions per game. Basketballvalue.com has taken it upone themselves to keep updated adjusted +/- statistics, which I'll be borrowing here. The leader at midseason for the Sonics? Mr. Kurt Thomas, who stands at +11.22 ppg. This is far and away the highest number on the Sonics, with Chirs Wilcox a distant 2nd at +7.20 ppg. Collison, Szczerbiak, and Johan Petro are the only other players with positive numbers all checking in at around +5 ppg. Thus far there's pretty good correlation with the PER statistic. 4 of the top 5 in PER are also 4 of the top 5 in adjusted +/- with the only exception being Kevin Durant.

But enough about the good guys, who's hurting the team? Not surprisingly, one of the Sonics 'point guards' (I'll take the quotes off when they start producing at even a slightly below average rate) in Delonte West at -12.08 ppg. So he's been worse than Kurt Thomas has been good. He's followed by the Sonic's rookie duo of Durant and Jeff Green who check in at -9.29 and -9.13 respectively. Staring 'point guard' Earl Watson is good for -8.17 ppg, and the only other players who have enough minutes to be properly evaluated are Damien Wilkins and Luke Ridnour at -6.24 and -3.61 ppg respectively.

From this, we could ascertain that perhaps Ridnour (when healthy) should be getting more minutes after all. The point guard position is going to be trouble no matter what. Shouldn't the Sonic's go with the lesser of three evils (much lesser when compared to Delonte West). Jeff Green's numbers are no surprise; he's largely struggled since his insertion into the starting lineup, and if the Sonics had anything to play for, he would be sitting. As it is, the front office hopes taking lumps now will pay dividends later. I can't find month by month data for adjusted +/-, but I suspect that Damien Wilkin's numbers have gone off a cliff since November.

The big surprise, is of course Durant ranking 2nd worst in +/- after ranking near the top of the PER leaderboard for the Sonics. Why the enormous discrepancy? As John Hollinger has said, "PER takes everything into account, EXCEPT for positional defense". So PER takes everything Durant does well at this point, (create shots, score, etc.) and neglects his biggest weakness: defenese. On the other hand, adjusted +/- begins by blindly comparing how many points a team scores and allows while a particular player is on the floor. If a player scores 10 points and gives up 20, that's going to show up in the stats.

I'll be back tomorrow with a 2nd half game plan, including suggestions to get the most out of the team.

Stern expects Sonics to leave Seattle

As someone who is openly rooting for the Sonics to come to OKC, today's press conference with David Stern was a welcome read. Stern's statements were extremely blunt (from espn.com)

"It's apparent to all who are watching that the Sonics are heading out of Seattle," Stern said during his annual All-Star Weekend news conference. "I accept that inevitability at this point. There is no miracle here."

While this is no shock to anyone who has been paying even the slightest bit of attention to the Sonics over the past year, that the commisioner of the NBA is so openly speaking about the Sonics future move speaks volumes about the likelihood of the Seattle working something out with the team. While Stern floated both next season and 2010 as potential future moving dates, its apparent that the franchise and perhaps the city of Seattle would be best served by a clean break as soon as possible.

The franchise will be stuck in neutral until they are able to relocate, and the uncertainty facing the players will likely be a hinderance in future (and hopefully more competitive) seasons. Imagine being a player and not knowing when or where you will be next year. How can the franchise expect to entice free agents without being able to tell them where they will be playing with 100% certainty?

For Seattle, the city would best be served by moving on so that they can lay the groundwork for the next team to move there. If the Sonics and Seattle have irreconcible differences (so to speak), why not move on and try to find the next match for a prospective NBA team? Seattle is a terrific market, a great basketball city, and can obviously support a NBA team (when the rug isn't being pulled out underneath them). There is eventually going to be another franchise in Seattle no matter what threats Stern makes. The sooner the Sonics are out of town and Seattle can start wooing a new franchise (the Grizzlies? the Hornets?), the sooner the NBA will return to Seattle.

The one thing I don't understand from the city of Seattle's viewpoint is this: at some point a new arena is going to have to be built if they want an NBA team. I know the Key Arena was just updated not that long ago, and I know the city is still paying the price. But there is no way a new team is going to come play at the Key, not after the Sonics washed out of there in the recent past. So the city can either man up and build another arena, and keep the beloved Sonics now, or they can wait 5 years, man up and build another arena, and host the Seattle Grizzlies. Or perhaps they'll change their name to the Seattle Rain at the point. The bottom line is that the NBA is going to require a new arena in Seattle. Either they can do it now and keep the Sonics or do it later and woo a new team, but they are going to have to do it if they want a team. Why not just do it now?

That's a rhetorical question. I know exactly why they won't do it. There is too much bad blood between the city and the Sonic's ownership even if the Key arena wasn't still bleeding money out of the city. But in a perfect world, that's what makes the most sense. And I want the Sonics to come to Oklahoma City.

Sonic Streak: 3 Games (Seattle 86 - New York 85)

Coming off of two straight home wins, the Sonics went back to the well tonight and came back with their 3rd consecutive win: 86-85 over the Knicks. Kevin Durant and Chris Wilcox were the only Sonics to score in double figures notching 21 and 20 points respectively. While KD went only 7-21 from the field, he wasn't forcing shots from outside (1-1 on 3's) and got to the line (6-8). This is the type of performance the Sonics can win with. Especially if you dominate one category like the Sonics did tonight...

The Knicks had a much better shooting night (44.4% to 39.5%), took better care of the ball (2 less turnovers), and got to the line more (26 attempts to 20 attempts). So how did the Sonics manage to win? Rebounds. The Sonics destroyed the Knicks on the glass, outrebounding them 55-34, a margin of +21 for the Sonics. This included an almost unfathomable 19-3 edge on the offensive glass, which yielded 14 extra shots for the Sonics, allowing them to make up for their poorer efficiency from the field. Nick Collison and Wilcox led the way with 12 and 10 rebounds respectively.

Durant is averaging almost 24 ppg over the 3-game stretch, the first time he's cracked the 20-point barrier in three straight games in almost a month. Not coincidentally, the Sonics won just one game in that time, highlighting Durant's value to the team. With the Sonics struggling to score (the Sonics rank dead last in the leaugue in offensive efficiency at 96.3 points per 100 possessions), they can't win if they aren't getting a good night from KD. Out of the Sonics 14 wins, only 4 game with Durant scoring less than 20. Conversely, the Sonics are 3-0 when Durant breaks the 3o point mark. These stats may seem obvious, but they really put Durant's importance into perspective. As a 19 year-old rookie, his team can only win when he brings his 'A' game. Who was the last rookie with that sort of pressure on him? LeBron James. He turned out pretty good, I think.

Notes: It's hard to believe that after we spent all of January touting Wally Szczerbiak's big month, he's missed 2 games in a row while the Sonics have rolled off 3-straight wins... Nick Collison just missed another double-double with 9 points and 12 rebounds... Delonte West had a brutal night shooting the ball, going 3-13. But Coach Carlesimo stuck with him in the 4th quarter anyway, as West chipped in 5 points in the 4th quarter(along with alot of missed shots)... Durant had both the game-winning points, and the turnover in the final minute to give the Knick's hope. He's not there yet, but he's bringing alot more to the table than he's taking off... The Sonics totaled just 34 points in the first half... The Sonics end their 7-game homestand against Chicago Monday night.

Sonics Streak: 2 games (Sonics 101 Cavs 95)

I guess the Sonics are just a streaky team. After finally ending the a 14 game losing streak Tuesday night against the San Antonio Spurs (minus Tony Parker), the Sonics are officially on a tear, beating the Cleveland Cavs (minus LeBron James) 101-95. Despite the relatively close final score, the Sonics controlled the game, opening up a 16 point lead in the first quarter, outscoring the Cavs 40-24. The Sonics' replicated Tuesday night's formula, with Kevin Durant leading the way with 24 points on 10-16 shooting, aided by Chris Wilcox (18 and 13), Jeff Green (17 points on 8-8 shooting), and Kurt Thomas (16 and 6).

Some might say that the Sonics looked out, facing the Cavs while they were missing their best player (and the best player in the NBA). But the fact of the matter is, that the Sonics shot over 56% as a team and dished out a remarkable 34 assists on 44 made baskets. In fact, the Sonics had more assists than the Cavs had made baskets, which is something that rarely happens. Earl Watson had a typical 2-6 shooting night, but more for made up for it with 12 assists. Kevin Durant continued his trend of filling up the stat sheet, adding 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks. He did have 5 turnovers in this game, but it turned out to be of little consequence.

It's hard to imagine ending a month with a 2-13 record and momentum, but that's exactly what the Sonics have done in halting their painful, PAINFUL, losing streak, and then beating both of the 2007 NBA Finals participants. The Sonics open up February with 2 more winnable games at home vs. the Knicks and Chicago, before hitting the road for games vs. the Kings and Suns. I'm trying not to read too much into the last two wins, both of which were against teams missing a key player (and in the case of Cleveland, the league MVP), but you have to figure the Sonics are good for a win vs. the Knicks, and at least 50/50 vs. the Bulls.

One last note: KD might be turning the corner. Watch out NBA.

SONICS WIN! SONICS WIN!

After losing to Philadelphia, Phoenix, Washington, Cleveland, New Jersey, Dallas, the Lakers, New Orleans, Memphis, Dallas (again), Houston, Houston (again), Atlanta and Sacramento, the Sonics finally broke through in 2008 with a win against the defending champion San Antonio Spurs. Kevin Durant was terrific scoring 26 points, including what turned out to be the winning basket with 32 seconds left in the game to put the Sonics ahead by 1. After Fabrice Oberto (Duncan and Ginobili and this guy is taking pressure shots?) couldn't convert a layup on the other end, Luke Ridnour padded the lead with two clutch free throws. Manu Ginobili then missed a 3-pointer and that was all she wrote for the Sonics long, long, long losing streak.

Durant's 26 points came on 9-19 shooting, which he complemented with a perfect 7-7 night from the free throw line. To top it off, Durant stuffed the stat sheet with 7 rebounds and his second consecutive 5-assist game to go along with a steal, a block and only 1 turnover. The Sonics' big men stepped it up bigtime against the Spurs with Chris Wilcox leading the way with 16 points and 10 boards. Not to be outdone, Nick Collison scored 14 and added 10 boards of his own, and Kurt Thomas put up 10 and 6, including two absolutely crucial jumpers with less than 2 minutes which allowed the Sonics to convert possessions down the stretch. As big as Durant's shot was, the Sonics wouldn't have won this game without the big veteran knocking down clutch shots in the halfcourt offense.

With Tony Parker sitting out the game tonight, you might think that this is one game where the Sonics actualy have an advantage at point guard with the Spurs starting career backup Jacque Vaughn. You'd be wrong. Earl Watson went a remarkable 0-8 from the field scoring his only 2 points on a pair of free throws. Luke Ridnour was almost as bad going just 1-6 from the field, but taking advangtage of the oppurtunity for redemption by hitting the clutch free throws with under a minute left.

Long term, what does this do for the team? Not much in terms of overall record, as the damage has been done. But I promise you, this is a big monkey off of the team's back. Losing leads to more losing, and the Sonic's need their core to learn how to win together. It's a good thing I'm not a GM. I'd be resigning Kurt Thomas to a 10-year $75 million deal right now if I was GM.

Next Target: The Cleveland Cavs on Thursday night. You're next Lebron.

Sonic Streak: 14 Games ( Sacramento 103 Supersonics 101)

And the streak reached 14 consecutive games tonight in a horrifying 103-101 last second loss to the Sacramento Kings. After Damien Wilkins hit a huge 3-pointer to tie the game at 101 with 6 seconds left, Kevin Martin lowered the boom with a buzzer-beater to leave the Sonics hopes crashed once again. While fans can take heart in the fact that the Sonics have had an oppurtunity to win 3 of the last four games, the fact is 14 losses in a row is 14 losses in a row. Kevin Durant had another tough shooting night, hammering away for a 5-20 night. He did show some progress, by salvaging his horrible night by going 9-10 from the free throw line to finish with 19 points and 5 assists( hey if you're going to miss 15 shots, at least you can pass the ball a bit). Kurt Thomas had a very strong game vs. a weak Kings frontline, checking in with 15 points and 10 rebounds in just 28 minutes. Earl Watson had 10 points and 8 assists despite shooting just 33% from the field.

Obviously if you lose a buzzer-beater, you probably didn't play that bad, and that was the case for the Sonics as they pounded the glass vs. the Kings, out-rebounding them 45-36 (thanks to a 15-6 edge in offensive rebounds). But the Kings were better when it counted, going 23-26 from the free-throw line, compared to the Sonics 29-39 showing, and coming up with big shots down the stretch (Kevin Martin in particular shook off a toough night to make them when it counted). Despite the Sonics big edge in offensive rebounds, both the Sonics and Kings attempted 81 shots, which is surprising due to the Sonics percieved edge in possessions.

The loss vs. the Rockets Wednesday night was more painful due to the fact that the Sonics actually had a lead with just 2 minutes to go as compared to tonight where the Sonics had to hit a huge shot just to get it to overtime, but anytime you lose with a buzzer-beater its painful. The Sonics get a chance to buck this losing streak vs. the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night, and then meet the runner-up Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday. The only good news is that the moderately dreadful New York Knicks visit on Saturday, giving the Sonics a reasonable chance at a home win. The bad news is that the two games vs. the Spurs and Cavs mean that the Sonics stand a very good chance at going winless in January. Thats the kind of statsistic that really hurts morale.

On the plus side, another month of losses or two and we'll be right at the top of the lottery.