This isn't a shot at Russell Westbrook. His physical talents are apparent. He has jaw-dropping athleticism, can go around any defender at any time and get to the basket at will. He shows great potential as a drive and kick point guard (which would be better if the Thunder had a single shooter on the team). Unlike Jeff Green, I haven't had to wonder if he has 'it'. Westbrook has it. It will be years before we know if he develops it and becomes the player the Thunder need him to be, but the pick can be justified.
However, the Thunder were unfortunate, because the player they really needed went one spot earlier. The Thunder have no one who can space the floor and hit open shots. The Thunder have no one who can consistently score to take the pressure off of Durant. The Thunder need a shooting guard to slide Durant to his natural position. The Thunder needed OJ Mayo.
10 games in, he's averaging 21 ppg on 45% shooting and including 40% from 3-point range. And he's still getting better: after averaging 14 ppg in his first 4 games, he's averaged over 25 ppg in his last six. He wasn't necessarily the safest pick, but 10 games in, he has already realized a great deal of his potential.
This obviously isn't the Thunder's fault. They can't control how the ping-pong balls bounce. And there is no telling who they would have selected if they had received the third pick...given Mayo's history, it might have been an unlikely pick. So maybe the Thunder are lucky after all...this way no one can second guess them.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Victory: VOKC Day
Thunder 88 - Timberwolves 85. Ahh...that's better. The Thunder secured their first victory, fighting back and then holding on to give the home crowd much needed satisfaction. The Timberwolves were seemingly in control for the first three quarters, allowing the Thunder to take the lead only once, before being held to just 12 points in the final quarter.
Kevin Durant led the way with 18 points, as 5 Thunder players (Thunderites?) scored in double figures. Russell Westbrook set a career high with 14 points, and numerous big plays in the second half. With the team in a close game for the first time, PJ unleashed his crunch time lineup for the final four minutes: Durant, Westbrook, Jeff Green, Earl Watson and Nick Collison. Aside from Watson, there was little to argue with, though Green continued to show he's not ready for prime time by missing two huge free throws with 7 seconds left. With renewed life, the Timberwolves had a chance to send the game to overtime leading to Ryan Gomes missed 3-pointer at the buzzer.
Westbrook continues to add a different dimension to the Thunder offense. While he remains a poor distributor, he is the only 'slasher' on the team, and the offense can easily become stagnant if they aren't hitting their shots when he isn't on the floor. Carlesimo threw a new look tonight, allowing Westbrook and Watson to play together, which also shifts Durant and Green to their more natural positions of small forward and power forward respectively (though Green is a tweener in the truest sense of the word).
Westbrook has already managed to do in three games, what Green still has failed to do: He's shown that he's a keeper. Even if Westbrook never develops a jump shot (and I'm not overly hopeful). I don't have a tremendous problem with Watson continuing to start and splitting minutes with Westbrook even though Westbrook is clearly the future. The team isn't going to win either way, so let Westbrook develop at his own pace. He doesn't need to develop bad habits in this transition period, so I don't agree with just throwing him out there to 'figure it out'.
The team is now 1-2 and gets 2 days off before Wednesday night's game with the defending champion Boston Celtics.
Preview: Thunder vs. Timberwolves
The Thunder's quest for the first win in franchise history continues tonight against a division rival, the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1). Both teams are in the second night of a back-to-back with the Timberwolves hitting the road after a home loss to Dallas on Saturday. The Timberwolves were one of the few teams that the Thunder/Sonics had significant success against last year going 3-1 in their 4 matchups. While the two teams have very different strengths, in many respects they are coming from the same place. Both teams are attempting to stockpile young talent and build around their young stars, Jefferson and Durant. Both have had a number of high first round picks over the past few years and have recently started to take character into account (see: Green, Westbrook, Love - acquired by trading OJ Mayo). The Thunder are building around their backcourt (Durant and Westbrook), while the Timberwolves are building through the frontcourt (Jefferson and Kevin Love). In one respect, the Timberwolves are ahead of the Thunder, as they have built a nice stockpile of talent in the wings with Rashad McCants, Randy Foye and Corey Brewer, while the Thunder's frontcourt is comparatively thin. At the same time, the Thunder have identified their point guard of the future, while the position is a blackhole for the Timberwolves.
Best Player: Al Jefferson. Jefferson, now in his fifth year out of high school emerged over the last two years as one of the best young post players in the league. Despite not having the freak athleticism of other young frontcourt all-stars (Amare Stoudamire and Dwight Howard spring to mind), Jefferson's size, footwork and strong hands allow him to put up great numbers. After stalling his sophomore campaign, Jefferson made huge leaps each of the last two years, and is unquestionably the man in Minnesota. As a 22 year-old, he had a 22+ PER, which points to a decade of elite level production from the big man for the Timberwolves. While the Kevin Garnett trade unquestionably worked out for Celtics, in 5 years, when that championship is a memory, the Timberwolves will still have an elite big man in the prime of his career.
Best Matchup: Chris Wilcox vs. Al Jefferson. While Jefferson has had his typical strong numbers when playing the Thunder/Sonics, Chris Wilcox has had a lot of success against the Timberwolves, averaging almost 18 points and 11 rebounds in four games last year. If Wilcox can provide a solid second option, the Thunder's chances of winning dramatically increase.
Hidden Stat: Despite losing 3 of 4 to the Thunder/Sonics last year, the Timberwolves ended the season with 2 more wins. This is backed up their two point edge in point differential, ending at -6.8 ppg compared to the Thunder's -8.8, which ranked last in the league.
Prediction: Coming off two disappointing loses, the Thunder come home and reward the fans with their first win in Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant leads the way with 24 points in a 91-84 win.
Best Player: Al Jefferson. Jefferson, now in his fifth year out of high school emerged over the last two years as one of the best young post players in the league. Despite not having the freak athleticism of other young frontcourt all-stars (Amare Stoudamire and Dwight Howard spring to mind), Jefferson's size, footwork and strong hands allow him to put up great numbers. After stalling his sophomore campaign, Jefferson made huge leaps each of the last two years, and is unquestionably the man in Minnesota. As a 22 year-old, he had a 22+ PER, which points to a decade of elite level production from the big man for the Timberwolves. While the Kevin Garnett trade unquestionably worked out for Celtics, in 5 years, when that championship is a memory, the Timberwolves will still have an elite big man in the prime of his career.
Best Matchup: Chris Wilcox vs. Al Jefferson. While Jefferson has had his typical strong numbers when playing the Thunder/Sonics, Chris Wilcox has had a lot of success against the Timberwolves, averaging almost 18 points and 11 rebounds in four games last year. If Wilcox can provide a solid second option, the Thunder's chances of winning dramatically increase.
Hidden Stat: Despite losing 3 of 4 to the Thunder/Sonics last year, the Timberwolves ended the season with 2 more wins. This is backed up their two point edge in point differential, ending at -6.8 ppg compared to the Thunder's -8.8, which ranked last in the league.
Prediction: Coming off two disappointing loses, the Thunder come home and reward the fans with their first win in Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant leads the way with 24 points in a 91-84 win.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Rocket Failure: Houston Rockets 89 - Oklahoma City Thunder 77
After hanging tough for the first half, the Thunder couldn't quite keep up with the Rockets, falling 89-77. The Rockets slowly built their lead throughout the 2nd half, stretching the lead to as much as 16, before settling on the final 12-point margin. Kevin Durant bounced back in a big way with 26 points on 11-20 shooting, and added 5 rebounds and 4 steals. The majority of his damage on mid-range jumpers. Durant shot only 4 free-throws and didn't attempt a 3-pointer. Despite the lack of variety in his offensive game, it was an excellent performance, especially in the first half, where he kept the team in the game almost single-handedly.
The Thunder held the Rockets to 36% shooting from the floor, but the Rockets countered with a significant advantage in free throws (31 attempts compared to just 12 for the Thunder). The Rockets also had a 49-39 edge in rebounding.
While Durant came to play, the rest of the team apparently decided to take the night off. Chris Wilcox continued his struggles against the Rockets, with 2 points and 2 rebounds on 1-6 shooting in 19 low (or perhaps negative) impact negatives. With no one besides Durant providing a consistent threat, Johan Petro and Earl Watson attempted to step up launching a combined 24 shots. Remember the previous post discussing how the Rockets route their offense through their two best players? This was pretty much the exact opposite of that. Watson can be excused, as the Rocket's defense forced many shots late in the shot clock, adding many low-percentage looks to his night. Petro on the other hand should not take 12 shots in any game under any circumstances.
Game Notes: Russell Westbrook's numbers didn't stand out with 6 points in 19 minutes. The one thing Westbrook does bring however is offensive variety. Westbrook is able to get to the rim and his athleticism adds a dimension that Watson lacks... The Thunder again avoided the 3-point line, missing all four attempts... Joe Smith 8 points on efficient 4-6 shooting in 21 minutes. However Smith had two crucial traveling infractions in the 3rd quarter while the Rockets began to pull away... Carlesimo played nine players with Wilcox, Mason, Westbrook and Smith coming off the bench. Stathead All-Star Carl Landry had a strong game with 16 points and 11 rebounds in 28 minutes.
Thunder Preview: Houston Rockets
The Thunder get back in action today with a 7:00 pm bout with the Houston Rockets (2-0). The Rockets have opened the season strong with two wins over Western Conference opponents: The Dallas Mavericks and the Memphis Grizzlies. While neither are expected to be among the NBA elite this season, the Rockets have had little trouble integrating the enigmatic Ron Artest into their lineup. Yao Ming remains the focal point of the offense, but Tracy McGrady seems happy to take a step back and let Artest find his footing. Artest is averaging 22.5 ppg for the refueled Rockets.
Best Player: Yao Ming. When healthy (which is less than 60 games a year), Yao is still a unique force in the NBA. He has a size advantage over every player, but it's Yao high skill level and high basketball IQ which allow him to stand alone among NBA centers. Yao will find the going even easier when matched up against Nick Collison, one of the more undersized centers in the NBA. Collison is slightly undersized for a power forward, let alone matching up with Yao. Johan Petro can't expect to neutralize Yao, but physical play will help limit his effectiveness.
Best Matchup: The Rocket's peremiter defenders vs. Kevin Durant. Fresh off a subpar opening night performance, Durant gets to follow up with two of the best defenders in NBA in Ron Artest and Shane Battier. Coach Rick Adelman will likely let Artest and Battier rotate on Durant with McGrady taking his turn occasionally as well.
Hidden Stat: Statheads love the Rockets. GM Daryl Morey is the foremost proponent of statistical analysis in NBA management, and stat-friendly media members like John Hollinger have been routinely projecting the Rockets to be better than their past results would indicate. The emphasis on statistical analysis in evaluating talent carries over to the court, where in order to increase offensive effiency, the Rockets have routed their offense through their two best players McGrady and Yao. While this is perfectly logical, the Rockets take to further extremes than any other team, with McGrady and Yao ranking near the top of the league in Usage rate. Last year the Rockets were able to shut down Chris Wilcox, who averaged just 4.5 ppg on 27% shooting in two appearances vs. the Rockets.
Prediction: The Rockets are efficient on offense and excellent on defense. They have had no problems integrating Ron Artest and are at home. At this point, the Thunder are no match for them. Expect the Rockets to roll 104 - 85.
Best Player: Yao Ming. When healthy (which is less than 60 games a year), Yao is still a unique force in the NBA. He has a size advantage over every player, but it's Yao high skill level and high basketball IQ which allow him to stand alone among NBA centers. Yao will find the going even easier when matched up against Nick Collison, one of the more undersized centers in the NBA. Collison is slightly undersized for a power forward, let alone matching up with Yao. Johan Petro can't expect to neutralize Yao, but physical play will help limit his effectiveness.
Best Matchup: The Rocket's peremiter defenders vs. Kevin Durant. Fresh off a subpar opening night performance, Durant gets to follow up with two of the best defenders in NBA in Ron Artest and Shane Battier. Coach Rick Adelman will likely let Artest and Battier rotate on Durant with McGrady taking his turn occasionally as well.
Hidden Stat: Statheads love the Rockets. GM Daryl Morey is the foremost proponent of statistical analysis in NBA management, and stat-friendly media members like John Hollinger have been routinely projecting the Rockets to be better than their past results would indicate. The emphasis on statistical analysis in evaluating talent carries over to the court, where in order to increase offensive effiency, the Rockets have routed their offense through their two best players McGrady and Yao. While this is perfectly logical, the Rockets take to further extremes than any other team, with McGrady and Yao ranking near the top of the league in Usage rate. Last year the Rockets were able to shut down Chris Wilcox, who averaged just 4.5 ppg on 27% shooting in two appearances vs. the Rockets.
Prediction: The Rockets are efficient on offense and excellent on defense. They have had no problems integrating Ron Artest and are at home. At this point, the Thunder are no match for them. Expect the Rockets to roll 104 - 85.
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