One Spot Too Late

This isn't a shot at Russell Westbrook. His physical talents are apparent. He has jaw-dropping athleticism, can go around any defender at any time and get to the basket at will. He shows great potential as a drive and kick point guard (which would be better if the Thunder had a single shooter on the team). Unlike Jeff Green, I haven't had to wonder if he has 'it'. Westbrook has it. It will be years before we know if he develops it and becomes the player the Thunder need him to be, but the pick can be justified.

However, the Thunder were unfortunate, because the player they really needed went one spot earlier. The Thunder have no one who can space the floor and hit open shots. The Thunder have no one who can consistently score to take the pressure off of Durant. The Thunder need a shooting guard to slide Durant to his natural position. The Thunder needed OJ Mayo.

10 games in, he's averaging 21 ppg on 45% shooting and including 40% from 3-point range. And he's still getting better: after averaging 14 ppg in his first 4 games, he's averaged over 25 ppg in his last six. He wasn't necessarily the safest pick, but 10 games in, he has already realized a great deal of his potential.

This obviously isn't the Thunder's fault. They can't control how the ping-pong balls bounce. And there is no telling who they would have selected if they had received the third pick...given Mayo's history, it might have been an unlikely pick. So maybe the Thunder are lucky after all...this way no one can second guess them.

Victory: VOKC Day

Thunder 88 - Timberwolves 85. Ahh...that's better. The Thunder secured their first victory, fighting back and then holding on to give the home crowd much needed satisfaction. The Timberwolves were seemingly in control for the first three quarters, allowing the Thunder to take the lead only once, before being held to just 12 points in the final quarter.

Kevin Durant led the way with 18 points, as 5 Thunder players (Thunderites?) scored in double figures. Russell Westbrook set a career high with 14 points, and numerous big plays in the second half. With the team in a close game for the first time, PJ unleashed his crunch time lineup for the final four minutes: Durant, Westbrook, Jeff Green, Earl Watson and Nick Collison. Aside from Watson, there was little to argue with, though Green continued to show he's not ready for prime time by missing two huge free throws with 7 seconds left. With renewed life, the Timberwolves had a chance to send the game to overtime leading to Ryan Gomes missed 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Westbrook continues to add a different dimension to the Thunder offense. While he remains a poor distributor, he is the only 'slasher' on the team, and the offense can easily become stagnant if they aren't hitting their shots when he isn't on the floor. Carlesimo threw a new look tonight, allowing Westbrook and Watson to play together, which also shifts Durant and Green to their more natural positions of small forward and power forward respectively (though Green is a tweener in the truest sense of the word).

Westbrook has already managed to do in three games, what Green still has failed to do: He's shown that he's a keeper. Even if Westbrook never develops a jump shot (and I'm not overly hopeful). I don't have a tremendous problem with Watson continuing to start and splitting minutes with Westbrook even though Westbrook is clearly the future. The team isn't going to win either way, so let Westbrook develop at his own pace. He doesn't need to develop bad habits in this transition period, so I don't agree with just throwing him out there to 'figure it out'.

The team is now 1-2 and gets 2 days off before Wednesday night's game with the defending champion Boston Celtics.

Preview: Thunder vs. Timberwolves

The Thunder's quest for the first win in franchise history continues tonight against a division rival, the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1). Both teams are in the second night of a back-to-back with the Timberwolves hitting the road after a home loss to Dallas on Saturday. The Timberwolves were one of the few teams that the Thunder/Sonics had significant success against last year going 3-1 in their 4 matchups. While the two teams have very different strengths, in many respects they are coming from the same place. Both teams are attempting to stockpile young talent and build around their young stars, Jefferson and Durant. Both have had a number of high first round picks over the past few years and have recently started to take character into account (see: Green, Westbrook, Love - acquired by trading OJ Mayo). The Thunder are building around their backcourt (Durant and Westbrook), while the Timberwolves are building through the frontcourt (Jefferson and Kevin Love). In one respect, the Timberwolves are ahead of the Thunder, as they have built a nice stockpile of talent in the wings with Rashad McCants, Randy Foye and Corey Brewer, while the Thunder's frontcourt is comparatively thin. At the same time, the Thunder have identified their point guard of the future, while the position is a blackhole for the Timberwolves.

Best Player: Al Jefferson. Jefferson, now in his fifth year out of high school emerged over the last two years as one of the best young post players in the league. Despite not having the freak athleticism of other young frontcourt all-stars (Amare Stoudamire and Dwight Howard spring to mind), Jefferson's size, footwork and strong hands allow him to put up great numbers. After stalling his sophomore campaign, Jefferson made huge leaps each of the last two years, and is unquestionably the man in Minnesota. As a 22 year-old, he had a 22+ PER, which points to a decade of elite level production from the big man for the Timberwolves. While the Kevin Garnett trade unquestionably worked out for Celtics, in 5 years, when that championship is a memory, the Timberwolves will still have an elite big man in the prime of his career.

Best Matchup: Chris Wilcox vs. Al Jefferson. While Jefferson has had his typical strong numbers when playing the Thunder/Sonics, Chris Wilcox has had a lot of success against the Timberwolves, averaging almost 18 points and 11 rebounds in four games last year. If Wilcox can provide a solid second option, the Thunder's chances of winning dramatically increase.

Hidden Stat: Despite losing 3 of 4 to the Thunder/Sonics last year, the Timberwolves ended the season with 2 more wins. This is backed up their two point edge in point differential, ending at -6.8 ppg compared to the Thunder's -8.8, which ranked last in the league.

Prediction: Coming off two disappointing loses, the Thunder come home and reward the fans with their first win in Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant leads the way with 24 points in a 91-84 win.

Rocket Failure: Houston Rockets 89 - Oklahoma City Thunder 77

After hanging tough for the first half, the Thunder couldn't quite keep up with the Rockets, falling 89-77. The Rockets slowly built their lead throughout the 2nd half, stretching the lead to as much as 16, before settling on the final 12-point margin. Kevin Durant bounced back in a big way with 26 points on 11-20 shooting, and added 5 rebounds and 4 steals. The majority of his damage on mid-range jumpers. Durant shot only 4 free-throws and didn't attempt a 3-pointer. Despite the lack of variety in his offensive game, it was an excellent performance, especially in the first half, where he kept the team in the game almost single-handedly.

The Thunder held the Rockets to 36% shooting from the floor, but the Rockets countered with a significant advantage in free throws (31 attempts compared to just 12 for the Thunder). The Rockets also had a 49-39 edge in rebounding.

While Durant came to play, the rest of the team apparently decided to take the night off. Chris Wilcox continued his struggles against the Rockets, with 2 points and 2 rebounds on 1-6 shooting in 19 low (or perhaps negative) impact negatives. With no one besides Durant providing a consistent threat, Johan Petro and Earl Watson attempted to step up launching a combined 24 shots. Remember the previous post discussing how the Rockets route their offense through their two best players? This was pretty much the exact opposite of that. Watson can be excused, as the Rocket's defense forced many shots late in the shot clock, adding many low-percentage looks to his night. Petro on the other hand should not take 12 shots in any game under any circumstances.

Game Notes: Russell Westbrook's numbers didn't stand out with 6 points in 19 minutes. The one thing Westbrook does bring however is offensive variety. Westbrook is able to get to the rim and his athleticism adds a dimension that Watson lacks... The Thunder again avoided the 3-point line, missing all four attempts... Joe Smith 8 points on efficient 4-6 shooting in 21 minutes. However Smith had two crucial traveling infractions in the 3rd quarter while the Rockets began to pull away... Carlesimo played nine players with Wilcox, Mason, Westbrook and Smith coming off the bench. Stathead All-Star Carl Landry had a strong game with 16 points and 11 rebounds in 28 minutes.

Thunder Preview: Houston Rockets

The Thunder get back in action today with a 7:00 pm bout with the Houston Rockets (2-0). The Rockets have opened the season strong with two wins over Western Conference opponents: The Dallas Mavericks and the Memphis Grizzlies. While neither are expected to be among the NBA elite this season, the Rockets have had little trouble integrating the enigmatic Ron Artest into their lineup. Yao Ming remains the focal point of the offense, but Tracy McGrady seems happy to take a step back and let Artest find his footing. Artest is averaging 22.5 ppg for the refueled Rockets.

Best Player: Yao Ming. When healthy (which is less than 60 games a year), Yao is still a unique force in the NBA. He has a size advantage over every player, but it's Yao high skill level and high basketball IQ which allow him to stand alone among NBA centers. Yao will find the going even easier when matched up against Nick Collison, one of the more undersized centers in the NBA. Collison is slightly undersized for a power forward, let alone matching up with Yao. Johan Petro can't expect to neutralize Yao, but physical play will help limit his effectiveness.

Best Matchup: The Rocket's peremiter defenders vs. Kevin Durant. Fresh off a subpar opening night performance, Durant gets to follow up with two of the best defenders in NBA in Ron Artest and Shane Battier. Coach Rick Adelman will likely let Artest and Battier rotate on Durant with McGrady taking his turn occasionally as well.

Hidden Stat: Statheads love the Rockets. GM Daryl Morey is the foremost proponent of statistical analysis in NBA management, and stat-friendly media members like John Hollinger have been routinely projecting the Rockets to be better than their past results would indicate. The emphasis on statistical analysis in evaluating talent carries over to the court, where in order to increase offensive effiency, the Rockets have routed their offense through their two best players McGrady and Yao. While this is perfectly logical, the Rockets take to further extremes than any other team, with McGrady and Yao ranking near the top of the league in Usage rate. Last year the Rockets were able to shut down Chris Wilcox, who averaged just 4.5 ppg on 27% shooting in two appearances vs. the Rockets.

Prediction: The Rockets are efficient on offense and excellent on defense. They have had no problems integrating Ron Artest and are at home. At this point, the Thunder are no match for them. Expect the Rockets to roll 104 - 85.

Start of an era

The Oklahoma City Thunder's first game went without a bang. This will go down as a great day for Oklahoma, and the Thunder organization, but it wasn't a great day of basketball. A Milwaukee Bucks team that has looked atrocious both in the preseason and in their loss to the Chicago Bulls one day earlier had their way with the Thunder for 3 quarters, until Carlesimo found a group willing to make a run (led by Joe Smith, Russell Westbrook, and Desmond Mason). Fighting, clawing and making stops, the Thunder fought back into the game, and the crowd came alive. You could taste a fairytale ending. But after cutting the 20+ point deficit to 11, Smith and Mason turned the ball over due to bad communication and Mason missed a layup to cut it to single digits and that was that. The Bucks pulled away for a 98-87 win over the OKC Thunder in their NBA debut.

While this won't be the only loss the Thunder experience this season, it probably served as a shock to the home crowd who likely felt they could will any team to a win. They had first-hand experience afterall, seemingly willing a below-average Hornets team into the playoff race three years ago. The problems that plagued the Thunder tonight are ones that plagued the Supersonics last year: An inefficient offense that has trouble scoring, and a young team that just hasn't had to time to meld together. This team is going to be good, as GM Sam Presti is going to keep on building his roster with the right players. With a wealth of draft picks (including what's likely to be a very high one of their own), the Thunder will have the ability to add another front-line talent to join Durant and Westbrook. I can tell you that alot of fans would be ecstatic to add Oklahoma's Blake Griffen to the mix next year. This team isn't built for 2008, its being built for a playoff run in 2010. They'll make it. Just give them time.

Some observations:

• Russell Westbrook is for real. He has absolutely lightening quickness and made Tyronn Lue (no slouch in the speed department) look silly a couple of time in the 4th quarter. He has a great handle, and is going to be able to get to the rim at will. I doubt that he'll ever have a great jumper, but he can be an elite point guard in the NBA.
• Jeff Green needs to come off the bench. I understand that the team wants to develop Green, who was the centerpiece of the Ray Allen trade (heck he might be the ONLY remaining piece), but he just doesn't bring anything to the table at this point. Green is a pure tweener, he doesn't have the perimeter skills or shooting ability of a small forward, and doesn't have the size of a starting power forward. He's best served to play on the second unit and maybe develop into a really solid 6th man. But when talking about the future, I don't think Green warrants mentioning as a future cornerstone. It's Durant and Westbrook for now. Moreover, Green needs to vacate the small forward spot for...
• Kevin Durant. As I've discussed before, Durant is a small forward. Carlesimo can keep playing him at the shooting guard slot all he likes, but Durant simply isn't a fit. Defensively, he has neither the quickness to keep up with the opposing guards, nor the strength to fight around picks. Offensively, he can shoot over the smaller guards, but he hasn't demonstrated good enough shooting ability to actually make this a worthwhile advantage. Durant has the moves to get around defenders, let him take the big boys off the dribble. As far as tonight, when he wasn't been abused defensively, Durant demonstrated a nice mid-range game that wasn't necessarily pretty, but he's got a shot he can get anytime he wants now. He's clearly been working on it
• Much as Kurt Thomas was last year, Joe Smith and Desmond Mason will be the veteran anchors. They keyed the Thunder's comeback in the 4th quarter and Mason electrified the crowd on a fastbreak dunk (beautifully orchestrated by Earl Watson). I'm happy to have them on the team.
• Chris Wilcox had another standard Chris Wilcox game. I'm sure he drives management crazy. He has the truly rare athletic skills for a big man, but inconsistent effort has plagued him for years. I'll put it this way. He had 15 points and 7 boards in just 27 minutes and I wasn't complaining when P.J. took him out. He'll be gone the instant his contract is up. No fouls in 27 minutes by the way. It's okay to foul sometimes Chris.
• The Thunder only shot 6 three-pointers, which is actually great news. This team doesn't have a single deep threat (Durant has the potential, but hasn't developed it yet), and can easily shoot themselves out of games. Watching the teams three-point attempts as the year continues will give a barometer of Carlesimo's control over the team.
• Johan Petro isn't the answer in the middle. I know this comes as no surprise to anybody who watched the the Sonics last year, but he just looks the part. Statistically Petro hasn't improved at ALL in his 3+ years in the league. That said, given the post options for the Thunder, he's going to get his 20 minutes a game.
• Oklahoma City packed the house with 19136 new Thunder fans for the franchises first (of many) sellout. They didn't get chance to live up to the loud city rep tonight, but its coming.
• I really wish they wouldn't play YMCA over the PA. Does this crap happen at other NBA arenas? Maybe Salt Lake City?

Thunderstruck.

Orlando Summer League: Game 1 OKC

First off, we're going to need a name to call the new team, until the OKC Thunder is shoved down our unwilling throats. For now I'm going with the OKC _____ (pronounced OKC Blank in conversation with friends). I'm open to suggestions.

Note to Clay Bennet: the OKC Thunder is a terrible name. Don't do it. I don't have anything better, but if I was forced I would go with OKC Team Stealers, or OKC Hicks. Either is better than Thunder. In fact I should probably stop capatalizing it. OKC thunder. See? It even looks stupid in print.

So for the moment, we're going with the OKC Blank. The Blanks had their first summer league game in the Orlando Pro Summer League. For those that don't closely follow the NBA, each summer there are a few Summer leagues which teams can elect to play in. Usually there is one is Orlando, Salt Lake City and Vegas, as well as a few others. These are for teams to evaluate their draft picks and players trying to make the team as undrafted free agents. For instance, take a look at the OKC Blank's summer league roster:

22 Jeff Green F
3 D.J. White F
30 Justin Williams
2 Devin Green G
0 Russell Westbrook G
8 Ndudi Ebi
23 Ronell Taylor
44 Nick Lewis
12 Rhonald Dupree
5 Mykal Riley
11 Aaron Bruce
50 DeVon Hardin
42 Brian Randel

Not exactly the 1986 Boston Celtics. Heck, that's not even the 1973 Sixers (season record: 9-73). But they are the first team to represent OKC and OKC only as a pro franchise at the highest level (sort of). The standouts on the team are obviously 4th overall pick Russell Westbrook and last year's number 6 pick Jeff Green. The main idea is for the team to play their rookies and young players as much as possible and try to give them valuable experience as well as evaluate the lesser players who the franchise hasn't invested as much in yet. Hence, the large number of guys with little chance of making the team. Just a guess, but I don't think Aaron Bruce will be with the OKC Blank when the season kicks off this fall.

So how'd they do? The Blank lost their inagural summer league game 95-78 to the Indiana Pacers. Green and Westbrook led the way for the Blank with 21 and 18 points respectively. The difference is that Green had an ugly 6-16 night shooting, while Westbrook was a much more efficient 7-13 with 5 assists and only 1 turnover. Overall, it was an excellent debut, especially when compared to the 10 point, 5 turnover outing by 1st overall pick Derrick Rose in another summer league game. D.J. White had 8 points and 4 rebounds and 5 fouls (get ready to see that stat line ALOT this year) in 26 minutes of action.

Based off of tonight, I'm not expecting the Blank to be too impressive in Summer League action. With Durant sitting out these games, the team looks woefully outclassed, and were easily beated by a relatively unimpressive Indiana team that was playing without its too first round picks. Maybe we needed Serge Ibaka after all.

I have to say, that Jersey looks really beautiful on Westbrook though. Something about the lettering.

Go Blank!